Assured Guaranty
AGO on NYSE. Assured Guaranty sells insurance against bond defaults to bond investors and issuers. Market value $3.0bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Some use the latest annual report instead, as marked. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Cash flow or capital spending isn't reported, so free cash flow is unknown.
Should I look at this?
Not a fit for our list right now
Why it could be worth it
See Financial services stocks that passed both tests
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
Yearly profit per dollar of owners' money: 7 cents. Above 10 is good.
What you pay for each dollar of net assets: $0.55.
Profit per $100 you pay: $11.50.
Quality score: 48 of 100. Price score: 100 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$69.43 a share, 3% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $67.24 to $92.40.
Dividend: 2.2% a year
Paid every year for at least 5 years
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $848m | $723m | $1.4bn | $872m | $1.1bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.06bn | 0.06bn | 0.05bn | 0.05bn | 0.04bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positiveDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
- Accounting checksDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
- DebtDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
- Revenue growth, five yearsShrinking, 0.1% a year
- Buying back its own sharesYes, 27% fewer since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $195 million last quarter, down 31% on a year ago.
- Profit: $39 million, down 62% on a year ago.
- 10% fewer shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit more of the company.
- Sales grew on a year ago in 1 of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $269m |
| December 2024 | $156m |
| March 2025 | $345m |
| June 2025 | $281m |
| September 2025 | $207m |
| December 2025 | $277m |
| March 2026 | $261m |
| June 2026 | $195m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $171m |
| December 2024 | $18m |
| March 2025 | $176m |
| June 2025 | $103m |
| September 2025 | $105m |
| December 2025 | $119m |
| March 2026 | $88m |
| June 2026 | $39m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 27 February 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 6 November 2026
Who owns it
5 long-term investors we follow own it, unchanged from 5 last quarter. 370 funds in all.
- Chou AssociatesFrancis Chou
- Value
- $1m
- Share of fund
- 0.6%
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royce & AssociatesChuck Royce | $85m | 0.7% | Added |
| Boston PartnersBoston Partners team | $39m | <0.1% | Cut |
| Gotham Asset ManagementJoel Greenblatt | $20m | <0.1% | Cut |
| Hotchkis & WileyHotchkis & Wiley team | $7m | <0.1% | Added |
| Chou AssociatesFrancis Chou | $1m | 0.6% |
Largest holders overall
- BlackRock$464m
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$318m
- Dimensional Fund Advisors LP$243m
- Vanguard Capital Management$154mCut
- State Street$127m
- First Trust Advisors LP$122mAdded
- American Century Companies$112mAdded
- AQR Capital Management$112mAdded
- Reinhart Partners, Llc.$100mCut
- River Road Asset Management$93mCut
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
4 investors own more than 5%.
- BlackRock, Inc.Passive investor11.0%Since 30 June 2025
- Vanguard Portfolio ManagementPassive investor8.8%Since 31 March 2026
- Wellington Management Company LLPPassive investor5.3%Since 30 June 2025
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor5.1%Since 31 March 2026
- Wellington Management Group LLPPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 December 2025
- Franklin Resources, Inc.Passive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 September 2024
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
BlackRock, Inc. Passive investor | 11.0% | 30 June 2025 | |
Vanguard Portfolio Management Passive investor | 8.8% | 31 March 2026 | |
Wellington Management Company LLP Passive investor | 5.3% | 30 June 2025 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 5.1% | 31 March 2026 | |
Wellington Management Group LLP Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 December 2025 | |
Franklin Resources, Inc. Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 September 2024 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 4 sold $18m.
- Radtke LorinDirectorSold
- Date
- 29 May 2026
- Shares
- 1,047
- Price
- $74.32
- Value
- $77,813
- Bailenson RobertChief Operating OfficerSold
- Date
- 11 May 2026
- Shares
- 50,000
- Price
- $78.62
- Value
- $4m
- BORGES FRANCISCO LDirectorSold
- Date
- 30 March 2026
- Shares
- 123,750
- Price
- $80.22
- Value
- $10m
- FREDERICO DOMINICPresident/CEO/Deputy Chairman, DirectorSold
- Date
- 23 March 2026
- Shares
- 29,998
- Price
- $81.41
- Value
- $2m
- FREDERICO DOMINICPresident/CEO/Deputy Chairman, DirectorSold
- Date
- 20 March 2026
- Shares
- 20,002
- Price
- $81.06
- Value
- $2m
- Radtke LorinDirectorSold
- Date
- 4 March 2026
- Shares
- 1,219
- Price
- $87.14
- Value
- $106,224
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2026 | Radtke Lorin Director | Sold | 1,047 | $74.32 | $77,813 |
| 11 May 2026 | Bailenson Robert Chief Operating Officer | Sold | 50,000 | $78.62 | $4m |
| 30 March 2026 | BORGES FRANCISCO L Director | Sold | 123,750 | $80.22 | $10m |
| 23 March 2026 | FREDERICO DOMINIC President/CEO/Deputy Chairman, Director | Sold | 29,998 | $81.41 | $2m |
| 20 March 2026 | FREDERICO DOMINIC President/CEO/Deputy Chairman, Director | Sold | 20,002 | $81.06 | $2m |
| 4 March 2026 | Radtke Lorin Director | Sold | 1,219 | $87.14 | $106,224 |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the warning signs we check for were found.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 27 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 7 Aug 2026 and 7 later 8-Ks.
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
- Sales have shrunk: 0.1% a year.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.