AAR
AIR on NYSE. AAR sells aviation parts and services to commercial and government aerospace customers. Market value $4.1bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to August 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to May 2026.
The company doesn't report operating profit, so we work it out from pre-tax profit and interest.
Should I look at this?
Worth a closer look
Why it could be worth it
What to watch out for
Nothing stood out in the numbers we check.
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $3.82 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
You pay 15.3 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.
Each dollar kept in the business earns 6 cents a year. Above 10 is good.
Quality score: 71 of 100. Price score: 74 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$104.03 a share, 37% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $76.10 to $154.00.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: $160 million in the past 12 months, $62 million in the year to May 2026.
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $1.8bn | $2.0bn | $2.3bn | $2.8bn | $3.3bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | n/a | 6.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 9.6% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 0.52 |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.03bn | 0.04bn | 0.04bn | 0.04bn | 0.04bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive4 of 5 years
- Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Watch
- Financial strength (Piotroski)6 of 8 checks we could run
- Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
- Debt0.52× equity
- Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 14.9% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 16% more shares since 2022
The quarter to August 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $918 million last quarter, up 24% on a year ago.
- Profit: $40 million, up 17% on a year ago.
- Spare cash over the past 12 months: $160 million. A year earlier it spent $26 million more than it brought in.
- 11% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
- Debt is $775 million more than cash, down from $942 million a year ago.
- Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | $686m |
| February 2025 | $678m |
| May 2025 | $755m |
| August 2025 | $740m |
| November 2025 | $795m |
| February 2026 | $845m |
| May 2026 | $928m |
| August 2026 | $918m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | -$31m |
| February 2025 | -$9m |
| May 2025 | $34m |
| August 2025 | $34m |
| November 2025 | $35m |
| February 2026 | $68m |
| May 2026 | $51m |
| August 2026 | $40m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 22 July 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 29 December 2026
Who owns it
7 long-term investors we follow own it, unchanged from 7 last quarter. 409 funds in all.
- GAMCO InvestorsMario Gabelli
- Value
- $32m
- Share of fund
- 0.3%
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow HanleyBarrow Hanley team | $84m | 0.3% | Cut |
| GAMCO InvestorsMario Gabelli | $32m | 0.3% | |
| Royce & AssociatesChuck Royce | $28m | 0.2% | Added |
| First Eagle Investment ManagementMatthew McLennan | $23m | <0.1% | Added |
| Mairs & PowerAndy Adams | $12m | 0.1% | Cut |
| Polen CapitalDan Davidowitz | $3m | <0.1% | Added |
| Gotham Asset ManagementJoel Greenblatt | $1m | <0.1% | Added |
Largest holders overall
- BlackRock$925mAdded
- State Street$405mAdded
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$312mAdded
- Dimensional Fund Advisors LP$276m
- Vanguard Capital Management$246m
- Invesco$229mAdded
- Earnest Partners$179mCut
- Capital Research Global Investors$166mCut
- Geode Capital Management$163mAdded
- American Century Companies$112mCut
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
3 investors own more than 5%.
- STATE STREET CORPORATIONPassive investor6.5%+1.2 ptsSince 31 March 2026
- Vanguard Portfolio ManagementPassive investor5.4%Since 31 March 2026
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor5.0%Since 31 March 2026
- Dimensional Fund Advisors LPPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 March 2026
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
STATE STREET CORPORATION Passive investor | 6.5%+1.2 pts | 31 March 2026 | |
Vanguard Portfolio Management Passive investor | 5.4% | 31 March 2026 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 5.0% | 31 March 2026 | |
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 March 2026 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 6 sold $27m, $3m of it under preset trading plans.
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 27 March 2026
- Shares
- 26,175
- Price
- $107.60
- Value
- $3m
- Garascia Jessica A.Senior VP, GC, CAO & SecretarySold
- Date
- 26 March 2026
- Shares
- 6,284
- Price
- $112.20
- Value
- $705,065
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 26 March 2026
- Shares
- 60,000
- Price
- $112.41
- Value
- $7m
- Nolen BillyDirectorSold
- Date
- 26 March 2026
- Shares
- 1,562
- Price
- $111.00
- Value
- $173,382
- Flanagan Sarah LouiseInterim CFO VP Fin OpsSold
- Date
- 4 February 2026
- Shares
- 10,750
- Price
- $108.56
- Value
- $1m
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 3 February 2026
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $108.44
- Value
- $1m
- Pachapa EricVP-CAO & ControllerSold
- Date
- 22 January 2026
- Shares
- 4,983
- Price
- $105.94
- Value
- $527,899
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 14 January 2026
- Shares
- 9,947
- Price
- $99.41
- Value
- $988,831
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 13 January 2026
- Shares
- 16,802
- Price
- $98.93
- Value
- $2m
- Holmes John McClain IIIChairman, President & CEO, DirectorSold
- Date
- 12 January 2026
- Shares
- 30,000
- Price
- $97.50
- Value
- $3m
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 March 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 26,175 | $107.60 | $3m |
| 26 March 2026 | Garascia Jessica A. Senior VP, GC, CAO & Secretary | Sold | 6,284 | $112.20 | $705,065 |
| 26 March 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 60,000 | $112.41 | $7m |
| 26 March 2026 | Nolen Billy Director | Sold | 1,562 | $111.00 | $173,382 |
| 4 February 2026 | Flanagan Sarah Louise Interim CFO VP Fin Ops | Sold | 10,750 | $108.56 | $1m |
| 3 February 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 10,000 | $108.44 | $1m |
| 22 January 2026 | Pachapa Eric VP-CAO & Controller | Sold | 4,983 | $105.94 | $527,899 |
| 14 January 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 9,947 | $99.41 | $988,831 |
| 13 January 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 16,802 | $98.93 | $2m |
| 12 January 2026 | Holmes John McClain III Chairman, President & CEO, Director | Sold | 30,000 | $97.50 | $3m |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the warning signs we check for were found.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 22 Jul 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 29 Sep 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
What changed in the risks this year
Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.
We do not own certain intellectual property and tooling that is important to our business, and we may be unable to protect the value of our intellectual property.
Could happenIn addition, we may face challenges obtaining, maintaining, and enforcing our intellectual property rights, which may diminish the value of our products and services, result in costly litigation, and otherwise negatively impact our business and financial results. We rely on and may not be able to protect our rights in the unpatented technology, trade secrets, and confidential information we use to conduct our business. Others may independently develop substantially equivalent information or techniques or otherwise gain access to or disclose our technology. When we develop intellectual property and technologies with funding from U.S. government contracts, the government has the royalty-free right to use that intellectual property. Confidentiality agreements with employees and consultants may not provide effective protection of our information or, in the event of unauthorized disclosure, may not provide adequate remedies.
Read moreOur U.S. government contracts may not continue at present sales levels, which may have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Could happenIf we have a contract dispute with the government, we generally seek resolution by negotiation, requests for equitable adjustment, and/or filing formal claims with the Contracting Officer (the denial of which may be appealed formally to the appropriate Board of Contracting Appeals). The resolution strategy for disputes depends heavily upon the ongoing business relationship with the customer, and the pursuit of claims requires significant time and additional costs, including legal fees and expenses. We make assumptions on what we expect to recover in our financial statements, but we may not be able to fully recover from the financial impact of these disputes, as there is no guarantee that litigation would ultimately be successful.
Read moreAcquisitions, which are a part of our business strategy, expose us to risks, including the risk that we may be unable to achieve the anticipated benefits from the acquired businesses.
Could happenFor any businesses we acquire, we may not be able to execute our operational, financial, or integration plans for the acquired businesses. We face challenges integrating the operations of acquired businesses, some of which were not previously part of a public company. We are also subject to unexpected liabilities and costs related to the acquired businesses, which can be difficult to predict. Further, we may not be successful integrating the acquired businesses in a manner that permits us to realize all of the anticipated benefits, including any synergies, cross-selling opportunities, cost savings, or financial or business growth opportunities, in the expected timeframe, or at all. In addition, we may not be able to manage our growth successfully. Also, adjustments to preliminary purchase price allocations during the measurement period could result in changes to the carrying values of acquired assets and liabilities. All of the above could have a material adverse effect on our overall business, financial condition, results of operations and growth prospects.
Read more
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
The company just reported its latest figures. The deep dive shows what they mean for the price you pay.
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.