Axis Capital Holdings

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 27 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 28 Jul 2026 and 6 later 8-Ks.

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• We could face losses from war, terrorism, political unrest, and geopolitical uncertainty, and these or other unanticipated losses could have an adverse effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity.

  We have exposure to losses, both through underwriting and investments, resulting from acts of terrorism, political unrest and geopolitical instability. Rising United States-China decoupling, trade restrictions, and tariff unpredictability create uncertainty. The shift from tariffs to choke-points (e.g., supply chain bottlenecks) is reshaping global trade. Many European countries face ongoing fiscal challenges, raising concerns about debt sustainability, and political instability. Other disputes including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East are expected to continue into 2026. In Latin America, political instability in certain countries, including Venezuela, may further amplify regional uncertainty and affect the global credit and political risk environment. Uncertainty over tariffs could lead to increasing cost of claims, such as rebuild costs in property damage or the value of cargo in marine.

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• We could be adversely affected by turnover of senior management, the loss of one or more key executives, an inability to attract and retain qualified personnel or by the inability of an executive to obtain a Bermuda work permit.

  Could happen

  Our ability to execute our strategy depends on attracting, developing, and retaining highly qualified talent. Loss of key executives or specialists, or failure to recruit successors, could impair our risk selection, pricing discipline, and operational continuity. We face intense competition for talent from insurers, financial services firms, and technology companies. Competitors may offer higher compensation, more flexible work arrangements, or enhanced career opportunities. Evolving employee expectations for remote work and enhanced benefits may limit our access to talent if we cannot offer competitive arrangements. Immigration and work permit restrictions in Bermuda and other jurisdictions may delay or prevent us from employing expatriate executives and specialists. Regulatory changes in compensation governance, taxation, or pay transparency laws may increase costs or limit flexibility in structuring packages. Our specialty lines require continuous upskilling in cyber risk, pricing analytics, and catastrophe modeling. Failure to recruit or retain talent with these skills could materially affect our competitiveness and risk management. There is no guarantee that we will always be able to successfully identify, hire, develop, or retain the talent in all of our disciplines. Any of these risks could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

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• Our non-U.K. companies may be subject to U.K. tax that may have an adverse effect on our results of operations.

  Could happen

  The U.K. government announced major reforms to the DPT regime during 2025, as part of a broader overhaul of transfer pricing, permanent establishment rules, and international tax alignment. These reforms were released through the Autumn Budget 2025, Finance Bill 2025–26, and HMRC publications.

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• Regulators’ concerns relating to corporate substance may have an adverse impact on us.

  Could happen

  In addition, failure to comply with the economic substance rules in Bermuda can result in fines, penalties and, in severe cases, deregistration, with similar penalties possible in Ireland.

• Changes in tax law as a result of the European Commission’s BEFIT proposal could adversely affect us.

  Could happen

  On September 12, 2023, the European Commission published a legislative proposal on "Business in Europe: Framework for Income Taxation" ("BEFIT"). The BEFIT proposal sets forth rules introducing a common framework for corporate income taxation in the EU, with the aim of replacing the current EU member states’ various ways for determining the taxable base for groups of companies that have annual combined revenues exceeding €750 million and, in the case of groups of companies headquartered outside the EU, if the EU companies within the group have annual combined revenues exceeding €50 million or representing at least 5% of the total group revenues. BEFIT has the potential to alter taxing rights within the EU, and may include substantive changes to applicable tax rules (including, for example, the debt-equity bias reduction allowance proposal (commonly known as "DEBRA"), which would, if adopted, introduce both a tax allowance on increases in company equity and a limitation of the tax deductibility of interest payments). The BEFIT proposal will now move to the negotiation phase among EU member states with the aim of reaching unanimous agreement. The European Commission proposes that EU member states transpose a directive on BEFIT into EU member states’ national laws by January 1, 2028 for the rules to come into effect as of July 1, 2028. The full detail of the proposals (and therefore their effect on the Company's business, financial condition and results of operations) is subject to change and currently remains subject to significant uncertainty; whilst the stated aims of the BEFIT proposals are intended to reduce compliance costs and tax burden for groups of companies operating within the EU, the impact of any such change could have an adverse effect on the Company's tax position.

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