Davita

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 11 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 4 Aug 2026 and 3 later 8-Ks.

• It owes more than it owns on paper (negative equity). Often that's from borrowing to buy back shares.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• Medicaid Programs and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA)

  Could happen

  State Medicaid programs are increasingly adopting Medicare-like bundled payment systems, but sometimes these payment systems are poorly defined and are implemented without any claims processing infrastructure, or patient or facility adjusters. These programs may also have complex eligibility requirements that vary across states, including states that may require citizen enrollees to provide documented proof of citizenship, as well as recent requirements in the OBBBA that introduce work requirements for certain “able-bodied” adult beneficiaries, among other things, which could negatively impact our patient based with an ESRD disability. On balance, these eligibility requirements are part of an overarching phase down of federal Medicaid expenditures in the OBBBA, along with provisions such as higher cost-sharing for certain patients and limitations on state funding mechanisms, known as provider taxes and state-directed payments. If these and other changes result in decreased patient volumes and revenue, substantially reduced Medicaid payments, reduction or delay in receipt of payment for dialysis and related services or increased costs for submitting claims or otherwise managing Medicaid program patients, it could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations, financial condition and/or cash flows.

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• Clinical Technologies, Treatments or Therapies

  Could happen

  New clinical technologies may also lead to drugs, treatments or other therapies with improved clinical outcomes or are preferred by patients and their physicians, and if we are unable to incorporate these products into our business or otherwise find adequate alternatives on a cost-effective and timely basis it could impact our ability to compete effectively. For example, hemodiafiltration (HDF), a treatment that combines hemodialysis and hemofiltration to improve clearance of middle molecule uremic toxins from the blood, is a developing technology not yet widely adopted in the U.S. The adoption of this technology would require significant capital investment in equipment and infrastructure and is subject to risks associated with its cost, availability and ultimately any associated reimbursement rate. While there remains uncertainty regarding HDF’s ultimate efficacy in the U.S. market given the current absence of large-scale U.S. studies on HDF, if competitors begin to adopt HDF and it proves to be a treatment that results in improved clinical outcomes or is preferred by patients and their physicians, we could be at a competitive disadvantage if we fail to effectively integrate it into our services. International studies have shown that expanded hemodialysis with the use of medium cut-off dialyzers can similarly provide enhanced middle molecule clearance. We have made investments to evaluate these medium cut-off dialyzers for use in the U.S. In the event these medium cut-off dialyzers do not achieve clinical results or if we are unable to secure the necessary supply of medium cut-off dialyzers, we may be required to invest additional time and resources in an alternative middle-sized molecule treatment initiatives. The failure to successfully adapt to these and other technological developments could, among other things, place us at a competitive disadvantage, result in increased costs without adequate reimbursement to offset such costs, and could ultimately have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows and could materially harm our reputation.

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• Severe weather events or natural disasters

  Political conditions may create additional risk and further intensify the impacts described above, including, among other things, global conflicts, as well as the changing U.S. political conditions that have driven changes in trade, tariff, monetary, healthcare, immigration and other policies by governmental authorities in the United States and across the globe. For example, the current administration in the United States has implemented policies and issued guidance that include: tariff and trade policies that have led to increased volatility in the global trade market; staff reduction policies at key agencies such as the Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) that may among other things, result in delays in Medicare enrollment, coverage verification, licensing and credentialing approval and may limit the availability of administrative and legal support that, among other things, delays claims resolution or similar processes; immigration policies that may adversely impact the labor market and treatment volume to the extent that such policies adversely impact access and availability to healthcare; and health policies and guidance related to the availability, use and adherence of vaccines, treatments and therapies; and other changes that may impact new-to-dialysis admission rates, treatment volumes, future revenues and non-acquired growth, among other things.

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• Our business is subject to a complex set of governmental laws, regulations and other requirements and any failure to adhere to those requirements, or any changes in those requirements or in federal or state legislation or regulations, could have a material adverse effect on our business, and operations, and in some circumstances, could materially harm our reputation.

  Could happen

  Changes to the complex and dynamic regulatory environment in which we operate can alter the regulatory framework of the healthcare marketplace and shape the competitive landscape for our current dialysis and ancillary businesses as well as for comprehensive and integrated kidney care markets. Such changes may require us to shift strategic priorities and initiatives to successfully compete. These changes may take the form of executive orders, presidential memoranda, legislative, regulatory and administrative developments and judicial proceedings, and may therefore be subject to evolving priorities and interpretations over time. As a result, considerable uncertainty exists surrounding the continued development of the healthcare regulatory and legislative environment including access to healthcare and the availability and affordability of commercial insurance over time. As an example, while the ACA and subsequent COVID-era legislation, including the enhanced premium tax credits offered for ACA exchange enrollment, resulted in an increasing number of patients with health insurance, recent legislative and executive action such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) or the decision to let those enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025 may ultimately decrease the number of patients with access to health insurance, including Medicare and Medicaid. If access to healthcare is significantly altered or if other reforms limiting access to healthcare are enacted in the future, such changes could materially impact our business. Similar uncertainty surrounds government pilot programs and innovative payment models, healthcare reform measures and/or other changes or extensions to laws, regulations and other requirements at the federal and/or state level that govern our business. We have invested significant resources to adapt to any such changes or developments in the healthcare marketplace, and subsequent modifications, terminations or other developments may require additional investment or result in losses. For example, as described below in the risk factor under the heading " We invest in strategic and operational initiatives to maintain our business and expand our capabilities... " , we have made substantial investments in and dedicated resources to our integrated care business, value-based care initiatives and home-based dialysis business to address regulatory developments that include innovative payment models, and these investments are subject to risk in the event the regulatory environment changes and we do not or cannot adequately adapt to such changes. More broadly, changes to the overall business and regulatory landscape, including, for example, changes related to the antitrust and competitive environment, also may require us to evaluate and adapt our operations or otherwise impact our business and ability to grow through acquisitions.

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• Global health conditions and changing population or demographic trends

  Already happened

  Global health conditions may adversely impact our patient census and treatment volumes. For example, severe flu seasons and the ongoing incidence of other infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in recent years have driven elevated mortality in our patient population, which has in turn had a negative impact on treatment volume. The negative perception of vaccinations in the U.S. has exacerbated these risks. To the extent that these and other global health conditions such as any future severe flu seasons, global health crises, pandemics or epidemics drive sustained elevated mortality levels in the overall ESKD or CKD populations, we may experience adverse impacts on our new-to-dialysis admission rates, treatment volumes, future revenues and non-acquired growth, among other things. Other trends in health conditions and changing population or demographic trends may also impact overall ESKD growth rates and our associated treatment volumes, including, among others, the growth and aging of the U.S. population, changing U.S. immigration levels, the availability of transplant opportunities, incidence rates for diseases that cause kidney failure such as diabetes and hypertension, or growth rates of minority populations with higher-than-average incidence rates of ESKD. Any decrease in growth rates for the ESKD or CKD patient population, higher mortality rates for dialysis patients or other reductions in demand for dialysis treatments, if sustained or significant, could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

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