Fossil Group
FOSL on Nasdaq. Fossil sells watches, jewelry, handbags, belts and sunglasses to shoppers worldwide. Market value $427m.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Should I look at this?
Not a fit for our list right now
Why it could be worth it
See Industrials stocks that passed both tests
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $-9.87 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
Each dollar kept in the business earns -7 cents a year. Above 10 is good.
Quality score: 18 of 100. Price score: 0 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$7.06 a share, 315% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $1.70 to $7.33.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: a shortfall of $41 million in the past 12 months, a shortfall of $60 million in the year to December 2025.
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $1.9bn | $1.7bn | $1.4bn | $1.1bn | $1.0bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | 5.0% | -0.1% | -10.1% | -9.1% | -1.9% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | 0.33 | 0.55 | 0.84 | 1.13 | 1.99 |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.05bn | 0.05bn | 0.05bn | 0.05bn | 0.06bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive2 of 5 years
- Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Nothing unusual
- Financial strength (Piotroski)2 of 9
- Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
- Debt1.99× equity
- Revenue growth, five yearsShrinking, 9.0% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 14% more shares since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $210 million last quarter, down 5% on a year ago.
- A loss of $11 million, compared with a loss of $2 million a year ago.
- It loses 1 cents on each $1 of sales, compared with 4 cents a year earlier.
- Over the past 12 months it spent $41 million more cash than it brought in, compared with $48 million a year earlier.
- 10% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
- Debt is $124 million more than cash, up from $69 million a year ago.
- Sales did not grow on a year ago in any of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $288m |
| December 2024 | $342m |
| March 2025 | $233m |
| June 2025 | $220m |
| September 2025 | $270m |
| December 2025 | $281m |
| March 2026 | $225m |
| June 2026 | $210m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | -$32m |
| December 2024 | -$8m |
| March 2025 | -$18m |
| June 2025 | -$2m |
| September 2025 | -$40m |
| December 2025 | -$19m |
| March 2026 | -$810,000 |
| June 2026 | -$11m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 12 March 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 12 November 2026
Who owns it
2 long-term investors we follow own it, unchanged from 2 last quarter. 112 funds in all.
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miller Value PartnersBill Miller IV | $9m | 2.1% | Cut |
| First Eagle Investment ManagementMatthew McLennan | $3m | <0.1% | Added |
Largest holders overall
- Nantahala Capital Management$46mAdded
- BlackRock$15mAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$10mAdded
- HG Vora Capital Management$9m
- Miller Value Partners$9mCut
- American Century Companies$7mAdded
- Acadian Asset Management$7mAdded
- Geode Capital Management$6mAdded
- TWO Sigma Investments, LP$6m
- Ameriprise Financial$5mAdded
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
4 investors own more than 5%.
- Nantahala Capital Management, LLCPassive investorat least 10.0%+0.5 pts(filed with 2 related holders)Since 31 March 2026
- BlackRock, Inc.Passive investor6.2%Since 30 June 2026
- Kanen Wealth Management LLCPassive investorat least 5.1%0.0 pts(filed with 3 related holders)Since 11 September 2026
- Miller Value PartnersPassive investorat least 4.2%−1.7 pts(filed with 1 related holder)Since 12 February 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
Nantahala Capital Management, LLC Passive investor | at least 10.0%+0.5 pts (filed with 2 related holders) | 31 March 2026 | |
BlackRock, Inc. Passive investor | 6.2% | 30 June 2026 | |
Kanen Wealth Management LLC Passive investor | at least 5.1%0.0 pts (filed with 3 related holders) | 11 September 2026 | |
Miller Value Partners Passive investor | at least 4.2%−1.7 pts (filed with 1 related holder) | 12 February 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
In the last 12 months, 7 insiders bought $1m of shares on the open market. 1 sold $305,623.
- Edwards Pamela JDirectorBought
- Date
- 20 August 2026
- Shares
- 7,208
- Price
- $5.58
- Value
- $40,221
- Tifford Gail BDirectorSold
- Date
- 18 August 2026
- Shares
- 55,669
- Price
- $5.49
- Value
- $305,623
- Schoppert Wendy LeeDirectorBought
- Date
- 18 May 2026
- Shares
- 24,331
- Price
- $4.14
- Value
- $100,730
- Schoppert Wendy LeeDirectorBought
- Date
- 16 March 2026
- Shares
- 21,929
- Price
- $4.68
- Value
- $102,628
- Coulter Suzanne MDirectorBought
- Date
- 3 December 2025
- Shares
- 28,170
- Price
- $3.62
- Value
- $101,975
- Greben Randy JCFOBought
- Date
- 24 November 2025
- Shares
- 20,980
- Price
- $2.38
- Value
- $49,932
- Edwards Pamela JDirectorBought
- Date
- 21 November 2025
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $2.37
- Value
- $23,700
- Tifford Gail BDirectorBought
- Date
- 20 November 2025
- Shares
- 33,000
- Price
- $2.40
- Value
- $79,200
- Schoppert Wendy LeeDirectorBought
- Date
- 20 November 2025
- Shares
- 41,322
- Price
- $2.47
- Value
- $102,065
- Martin Joe TChief Commercial OfficerBought
- Date
- 18 November 2025
- Shares
- 56,180
- Price
- $1.78
- Value
- $100,000
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 August 2026 | Edwards Pamela J Director | Bought | 7,208 | $5.58 | $40,221 |
| 18 August 2026 | Tifford Gail B Director | Sold | 55,669 | $5.49 | $305,623 |
| 18 May 2026 | Schoppert Wendy Lee Director | Bought | 24,331 | $4.14 | $100,730 |
| 16 March 2026 | Schoppert Wendy Lee Director | Bought | 21,929 | $4.68 | $102,628 |
| 3 December 2025 | Coulter Suzanne M Director | Bought | 28,170 | $3.62 | $101,975 |
| 24 November 2025 | Greben Randy J CFO | Bought | 20,980 | $2.38 | $49,932 |
| 21 November 2025 | Edwards Pamela J Director | Bought | 10,000 | $2.37 | $23,700 |
| 20 November 2025 | Tifford Gail B Director | Bought | 33,000 | $2.40 | $79,200 |
| 20 November 2025 | Schoppert Wendy Lee Director | Bought | 41,322 | $2.47 | $102,065 |
| 18 November 2025 | Martin Joe T Chief Commercial Officer | Bought | 56,180 | $1.78 | $100,000 |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the warning signs we check for were found.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 12 Mar 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 13 Aug 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
- Sales have shrunk: 9.0% a year.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.