GEO Group
GEO on NYSE. GEO Group sells prison and detention services to government agencies. Market value $4.3bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Recent profit includes a one-time gain, so we price the company excluding that gain.
Should I look at this?
Good business, but not cheap right now
Why it could be worth it
Nothing stands out yet.
What to watch out for
See cheaper Retail & consumer stocks on the list
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $0.67 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
You pay 17.2 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.
Each dollar kept in the business earns 8 cents a year. Above 10 is good.
Quality score: 71 of 100. Price score: 42 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$29.94 a share, 139% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $12.51 to $33.17.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: $26 million in the past 12 months, a shortfall of $125 million in the year to December 2025.
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $2.3bn | $2.4bn | $2.4bn | $2.4bn | $2.6bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | 12.8% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | 3.04 | 1.76 | 1.42 | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.12bn | 0.13bn | 0.14bn | 0.14bn | 0.13bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive4 of 5 years
- Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Not enough data
- Financial strength (Piotroski)7 of 8 checks we could run
- Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
- Debt1.11× equity
- Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 2.3% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 6% more shares since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $732 million last quarter, up 15% on a year ago.
- Profit: $48 million, up 63% on a year ago.
- It keeps 11 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, down from 12 cents a year earlier.
- Spare cash over the past 12 months: $26 million, down from $131 million.
- 6% fewer shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit more of the company.
- Debt is $1.5 billion more than cash, down from $1.6 billion a year ago.
- Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $603m |
| December 2024 | $608m |
| March 2025 | $605m |
| June 2025 | $636m |
| September 2025 | $682m |
| December 2025 | $708m |
| March 2026 | $705m |
| June 2026 | $732m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $26m |
| December 2024 | $15m |
| March 2025 | $20m |
| June 2025 | $29m |
| September 2025 | $174m |
| December 2025 | $32m |
| March 2026 | $38m |
| June 2026 | $48m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 25 February 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 5 November 2026
Who owns it
1 long-term investor we follow owns it, unchanged from 1 last quarter. 290 funds in all.
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow HanleyBarrow Hanley team | $4,107 | <0.1% | Added |
Largest holders overall
- BlackRock$571mCut
- Pentwater Capital Management LP$313mAdded
- UBS Group AG$226mCut
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$219m
- Vanguard Capital Management$170m
- Goldman Sachs Group$162mAdded
- State Street$146m
- Continental General Insurance$146mCut
- Rubric Capital Management LP$122mAdded
- HSBC Holdings$119mNew
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
5 investors own more than 5%.
- Pentwater Capital Management LPPassive investorat least 7.2%(filed with 1 related holder)Since 31 March 2026
- Vanguard Portfolio ManagementPassive investor5.7%Since 31 March 2026
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor5.1%Since 31 March 2026
- CONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE COPassive investorat least 3.7%−1.4 pts(filed with 3 related holders)Since 30 June 2026
- Wolf Hill Capital Management, LPPassive investorat least 2.3%−3.7 pts(filed with 2 related holders)Since 30 June 2025
- FMR LLCPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 June 2025
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
Pentwater Capital Management LP Passive investor | at least 7.2% (filed with 1 related holder) | 31 March 2026 | |
Vanguard Portfolio Management Passive investor | 5.7% | 31 March 2026 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 5.1% | 31 March 2026 | |
CONTINENTAL GENERAL INSURANCE CO Passive investor | at least 3.7%−1.4 pts (filed with 3 related holders) | 30 June 2026 | |
Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP Passive investor | at least 2.3%−3.7 pts (filed with 2 related holders) | 30 June 2025 | |
FMR LLC Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 June 2025 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 4 sold $1m, $101,087 of it under preset trading plans.
- Albence MatthewSenior VP, Client RelationsSold
- Date
- 11 September 2026
- Shares
- 11,797
- Price
- $31.45
- Value
- $371,075
- Brack Ronald A.See RemarksSold
- Date
- 21 August 2026
- Shares
- 7,000
- Price
- $32.00
- Value
- $224,000
- Albence MatthewSenior VP, Client RelationsSold
- Date
- 20 August 2026
- Shares
- 10,000
- Price
- $31.69
- Value
- $316,860
- Koren Lindsay L.DirectorSold
- Date
- 13 August 2026
- Shares
- 3,500
- Price
- $31.30
- Value
- $109,568
- KERNAN SCOTT MICHAELDirectorSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 4 March 2026
- Shares
- 6,633
- Price
- $15.24
- Value
- $101,087
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 September 2026 | Albence Matthew Senior VP, Client Relations | Sold | 11,797 | $31.45 | $371,075 |
| 21 August 2026 | Brack Ronald A. See Remarks | Sold | 7,000 | $32.00 | $224,000 |
| 20 August 2026 | Albence Matthew Senior VP, Client Relations | Sold | 10,000 | $31.69 | $316,860 |
| 13 August 2026 | Koren Lindsay L. Director | Sold | 3,500 | $31.30 | $109,568 |
| 4 March 2026 | KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL Director | Sold under a preset trading plan | 6,633 | $15.24 | $101,087 |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the warning signs we check for were found.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 25 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026 and 5 later 8-Ks.
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.