Green Plains
GPRE on Nasdaq. Green Plains sells ethanol and corn co-products to fuel and feed buyers. Market value $1.1bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Recent profit includes a one-time gain, so we price the company excluding that gain.
Should I look at this?
Not a fit for our list right now
Why it could be worth it
See Materials stocks that passed both tests
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $11.99 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
You pay 13.5 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.
Each dollar kept in the business earns -4 cents a year. Above 10 is good.
Quality score: 30 of 100. Price score: 97 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$15.16 a share, 70% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $8.93 to $19.65.
Dividend: 0.1% a year
Paid every year for at least 5 years
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: $127 million in the past 12 months, $74 million in the year to December 2025.
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $2.8bn | $3.7bn | $3.3bn | $2.5bn | $2.1bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | 0.9% | -2.7% | -1.9% | -1.9% | -3.2% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | 0.77 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.06bn | 0.06bn | 0.06bn | 0.07bn | 0.07bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive1 of 5 years
- Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Nothing unusual
- Financial strength (Piotroski)5 of 9
- Profit backed by cash (accruals)No
- Debt0.53× equity
- Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 1.7% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 18% more shares since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $446 million last quarter, down 19% on a year ago.
- Profit: $67 million, after a loss of $72 million a year ago.
- It keeps 7 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, after losing 3 cents a year earlier.
- Spare cash over the past 12 months: $127 million. A year earlier it spent $44 million more than it brought in.
- 27% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
- Debt is $298 million more than cash, down from $400 million a year ago.
- Sales did not grow on a year ago in any of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $659m |
| December 2024 | $584m |
| March 2025 | $602m |
| June 2025 | $553m |
| September 2025 | $508m |
| December 2025 | $429m |
| March 2026 | $446m |
| June 2026 | $446m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $48m |
| December 2024 | -$55m |
| March 2025 | -$73m |
| June 2025 | -$72m |
| September 2025 | $12m |
| December 2025 | $12m |
| March 2026 | $33m |
| June 2026 | $67m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 10 February 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 5 November 2026
Who owns it
2 long-term investors we follow own it, down from 3 last quarter. 221 funds in all.
- GMOJeremy Grantham
- Value
- $60m
- Share of fund
- 0.1%
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMOJeremy Grantham | $60m | 0.1% | |
| Gotham Asset ManagementJoel Greenblatt | $304,386 | <0.1% | Cut |
Sold out this quarter
- Barrow HanleyBarrow Hanley teamSold out
Largest holders overall
- BlackRock$157mAdded
- Goldman Sachs Group$62mAdded
- GMO$60m
- State Street$58mAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$46m
- Ancora Advisors$42m
- TWO Sigma Investments, LP$39mAdded
- BNP Paribas Financial Markets$35mAdded
- Geode Capital Management$32mAdded
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$31mAdded
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
5 investors own more than 5%.
- BlackRock, Inc.Passive investor13.8%+3.6 ptsSince 30 June 2026
- GMOPassive investor5.8%−1.0 ptsSince 31 December 2025
- STATE STREET CORPORATIONPassive investor5.4%+1.2 ptsSince 30 June 2026
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor5.0%Since 30 June 2026
- Ancora Alternatives LLCat least 4.7%−1.2 pts(filed with 12 related holders)Since 11 September 2025
- COOPER CREEK PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LLCPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 December 2024
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
BlackRock, Inc. Passive investor | 13.8%+3.6 pts | 30 June 2026 | |
GMO Passive investor | 5.8%−1.0 pts | 31 December 2025 | |
STATE STREET CORPORATION Passive investor | 5.4%+1.2 pts | 30 June 2026 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 5.0% | 30 June 2026 | |
Ancora Alternatives LLC | at least 4.7%−1.2 pts (filed with 12 related holders) | 11 September 2025 | |
COOPER CREEK PARTNERS MANAGEMENT LLC Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 December 2024 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
In the last 12 months, 1 insider bought $101,298 of shares on the open market.
- Sweeney Patrick FrancisDirectorBought
- Date
- 6 March 2026
- Shares
- 6,383
- Price
- $15.87
- Value
- $101,298
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 March 2026 | Sweeney Patrick Francis Director | Bought | 6,383 | $15.87 | $101,298 |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the serious warning signs we check for were found. 1 thing worth knowing.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 10 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.
One big customer
Worth knowingOne customer brings in a big share of sales: 44% last year. Losing that customer would hurt.
“Revenues from Customer A represented 44 % of total revenues for the year ended December 31, 2025, which are recorded within the ethanol production segment.”
From the 10-K filed 10 February 2026, Item 8. Financial Statements and Notes. Read it in the filing
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
- Sales have barely grown: 1.7% a year.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.