Gates Industrial

GTES on NYSE. Gates sells power transmission and fluid power parts to repair shops and equipment makers. Market value $7.0bn.

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Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.

Should I look at this?

Worth a closer look

Read what could go wrong

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

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Cash yield
past 12 months to June 2026
5.7%fair

For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $5.67 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.

Price to profit
past 12 months to June 2026
18.4×full

You pay 18.4 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.

Return on capital
five annual reports to December 2025
7.6%five-year median

Each dollar kept in the business earns 8 cents a year. Above 10 is good.

Quality score: 85 of 100. Price score: 81 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$28.25 a share, 35% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $20.88 to $30.34.

Pays no dividend

Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
2021202220232024202512 monthsto Jun '26
Revenue
$3.5bn$3.6bn$3.6bn$3.4bn$3.4bn
Operating margin
13.9%10.8%12.9%13.9%13.5%
Debt to equity
0.830.790.760.780.67
Shares outstanding
0.28bn0.26bn0.25bn0.26bn0.25bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positive5 of 5 years
  • Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Nothing unusual
  • Financial strength (Piotroski)7 of 9
  • Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
  • Debt0.67× equity
  • Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 4.3% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesYes, 10% fewer since 2021

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $942 million last quarter, up 7% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $171 million, up 202% on a year ago.
  • It keeps 13 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, down from 14 cents a year earlier.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $405 million, up from $335 million.
  • 2% fewer shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit more of the company.
  • Debt is $1.4 billion more than cash, down from $1.6 billion a year ago.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$831m
December 2024$829m
March 2025$848m
June 2025$884m
September 2025$856m
December 2025$856m
March 2026$851m
June 2026$942m
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$48m
December 2024$37m
March 2025$62m
June 2025$57m
September 2025$82m
December 2025$51m
March 2026$60m
June 2026$171m

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
n/a
Last annual report (10-K)
12 February 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
30 October 2026

Who owns it

8 long-term investors we follow own it, down from 10 last quarter. 378 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26
Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

5 investors own more than 5%.

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 3 sold $2m.

  • Zhang Peifang
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    6 August 2026
    Shares
    6,000
    Price
    $28.62
    Value
    $171,720
  • Zhang Peifang
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    5 August 2026
    Shares
    6,000
    Price
    $29.56
    Value
    $177,360
  • Zhang Peifang
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    4 August 2026
    Shares
    5,000
    Price
    $29.76
    Value
    $148,800
  • Montgomery Gwendolyn Ann
    Chief Human Resources Officer
    Sold
    Date
    26 November 2025
    Shares
    40,996
    Price
    $22.60
    Value
    $926,510
  • Montgomery Gwendolyn Ann
    Chief Human Resources Officer
    Sold
    Date
    17 November 2025
    Shares
    2,338
    Price
    $21.64
    Value
    $50,594
  • Mallard Lawrence B
    Chief Financial Officer
    Sold
    Date
    12 November 2025
    Shares
    22,188
    Price
    $22.77
    Value
    $505,221

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 12 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 31 Jul 2026 and 5 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

What changed in the risks this year

Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.

  • U.S. policies, actions, or legislation could have a material adverse impact on our and our business partners’ operations and financial results.

    Could happen
    • withdrawal of or changes in federal funding and support of organizations and programs that affect companies operating in the U.S. and their workforces, including those related to cyber security; and • other changes to U.S. policies that may have a negative impact on U.S. economic conditions or us.
    Read more
  • Increasing competition may limit our ability to grow or maintain our competitive position or margins.

    Could happen
    We compete in a wide variety of end markets with a broad portfolio of products. Our ability to compete effectively in each end market depends on how successfully we anticipate and respond to various local competitive factors, such as product offerings, customer service and pricing. Additionally, our competitors may adopt new technologies, such as AI and machine learning, to pursue new products and approaches more quickly, successfully and effectively than us. If we are unable to successfully respond to these pressures, our revenues could be negatively impacted. In emerging markets such as areas of southeast Asia and eastern Europe, the aftermarket channels are still nascent as compared to those in more developed nations. In these markets, we have focused on establishing brand visibility, including by building an OEM presence in the end markets we serve. However, as the aftermarket channels in these regions grow, our products may not be selected as the aftermarket product based on local market requirements and other competitive factors, and there may be a material adverse effect on our aftermarket sales growth potential in these emerging markets. In addition, we generate strong margins by selling premium products at premium prices. Accordingly, our margins could suffer if our customers are no longer willing to pay a premium for our product and service offerings. We continue to face pricing pressure from our customers in OEM end markets as well as other end markets. Many manufacturers seek price reductions in both the initial bidding process and during the term of the award. If we are not able to offset price reductions through improved operating efficiencies, reduced expenditures, or new product introductions, those price reductions may have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
    Read more
  • U.S. policies, actions, or legislation could have a material adverse impact on our and our business partners’ operations and financial results.

    The likelihood and duration of such occurrences and their potential effect on us, our vendors and customers, are unpredictable and our efforts to minimize or eliminate the effects of these occurrences may not be successful. For example, recent U.S. tariff policies have been volatile and remain uncertain, making it difficult for us and our vendors to predict or act to mitigate negative impacts of the tariffs. While we have taken measures to help mitigate U.S. and retaliatory tariffs enacted in 2025, if we are unable to recoup cost increases resulting from current or future tariffs through our pricing strategies on a timely basis or at all, or are unable to offset these cost increases through other means, our operating margins and results of operations may be materially adversely affected. Moreover, we may be impacted by tariffs to a greater degree than our competitors who operate in countries that are not subject to tariffs or are subject to lesser tariffs, placing us at a disadvantage. Uncertainty with respect to tariffs and other U.S. foreign relations policies and actions has led to, and may continue to lead to, volatility in the global financial markets, which could negatively impact demand for our products and increase future costs of capital. Certain of these risks may be exacerbated if key trading partners enact or coordinate retaliatory efforts against the U.S. or U.S.-headquartered companies.
    Read more

Read it in the annual report

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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What a finished deep dive looks like

Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.