Harley-Davidson

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 26 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 5 Aug 2026 and 5 later 8-Ks.

• Sales have barely grown: 2.0% a year.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• • The Company recently appointed a new Chief Executive Officer and is developing a new strategic plan, which creates uncertainties that may…

  Could happen

  • The Company recently appointed a new Chief Executive Officer and is developing a new strategic plan, which creates uncertainties that may have a material adverse effect on the Company's business and results of operations. Artie Starrs assumed the role of Chief Executive Officer on October 1, 2025. Soon after his appointment, he initiated a comprehensive evaluation of the Company's strategy and operations. The Company expects the strategic and operational evaluation activities to continue in the coming months to develop a new strategic plan for the Company. To the extent the Company is unable to successfully develop, implement, and execute its strategic plan, or if it experiences delays in the development, implementation or execution of the strategic plan, the Company’s business, financial condition and results of operation may be adversely affected. There is no assurance that the Company will be able to develop, implement, or execute business plans or strategies, or that they will ultimately be profitable or successful.

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• • The Company utilizes a limited number of contract manufacturers to produce certain components and/or products, which may present…

  Could happen

  • The Company utilizes a limited number of contract manufacturers to produce certain components and/or products, which may present significant risks due to the lack of direct control over their activities, including delivery schedules, quality assurance, production costs and manufacturing yields. Our contract manufacturers' inability to produce certain components and/or products that satisfy our requirements may have a material adverse effect on our business. In certain circumstances, the Company relies on contract manufacturers to provide manufacturing, procurement, logistics and distribution services for certain components and/or products. If the contract manufacturer becomes unwilling or unable to manufacture components and/or products at the required quantity, quality, cost or schedule, the Company may need to engage another contract manufacturer or build its own in-house manufacturing capabilities, which could cause the Company to incur significant cost and expense. Additionally, it may take time to transition to another contract manufacturer, and there is no assurance that another contract manufacturer would be able to meet the Company’s capacity, capability or quality requirements, or otherwise be an effective and acceptable manufacturing solution. Additionally, utilizing contract manufacturers subjects the Company to risks associated with the protection of our trademarks and other intellectual property. If our contract manufacturers fail to protect our trademarks, trade secrets and other intellectual property, either intentionally or unintentionally, including producing products that compete with ours, it may adversely affect our operations, financial condition and/or cash flows.

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• • The Company’s operations are dependent upon attracting and retaining skilled employees, including skilled labor, executive officers and…

  Could happen

  • The Company’s operations are dependent upon attracting and retaining skilled employees, including skilled labor, executive officers and other senior leaders. The Company’s future success depends on its continuing ability to: (i) identify, hire, develop, motivate, retain and promote skilled personnel for all areas of its organization, (ii) effectively execute reorganization actions within expected costs and realize the expected benefits of those actions, and (iii) attract qualified and experienced independent directors for its Board of Directors. The Company is highly dependent on its senior management, including its new Chief Executive Officer, Artie Starrs, other key personnel and its Board of Directors. A leadership transition can increase turnover risks, including among key personnel, and result in changes in the Company's business strategy, which may impact its business and financial performance. The loss of key personnel or independent directors could adversely affect the Company’s operations and profitability. Any perceived uncertainties regarding the Company's future direction and control, its ability to develop effective strategies and execute its business plans, or alterations to the composition of its Board of Directors or senior management team could create a perception of instability or a shift in business direction, affecting the Company's ability to attract or retain qualified personnel or independent directors. Further, the Company’s current and future total compensation arrangements, which include benefits and incentive awards, may not be successful in attracting new employees and retaining and motivating the Company’s existing employees. In addition, the Company must cultivate and sustain a work environment where employees are engaged and energized in their jobs to maximize their performance, and the Company must effectively execute reorganization actions. In late 2025, after five years of its corporate employees primarily working remotely, the Company announced that Milwaukee-based corporate employees would return to on-site work at specified Company facilities, including the Company's historic Juneau Avenue campus in Milwaukee. This transition back into the office may impact the Company's culture and workplace which could lead to attrition and difficulty attracting qualified personnel. If the Company does not succeed in attracting new personnel, retaining existing personnel, implementing effective succession plans, executing reorganization actions and motivating and engaging personnel, including executive officers, the Company may be unable to develop and distribute products and services and effectively execute its plans and strategies.

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• • The Company may not realize the desired benefits from the strategic transaction between HDFS and its strategic partners, KKR and PIMCO.

  Could happen

  • The Company may not realize the desired benefits from the strategic transaction between HDFS and its strategic partners, KKR and PIMCO. During 2025, HDFS (i) sold to KKR and PIMCO a collective 9.8% of its common equity interest, (ii) sold to KKR and PIMCO the majority of its existing gross consumer retail loan receivables, including those held in securitized trusts, and (iii) began to sell up to two-thirds of HDFS’s on-going retail loan originations. Harley-Davidson Credit Corp., a subsidiary of HDFS, also completed the sale of a portion of HDCC’s promissory notes and security agreements portfolio to KKR Morrow Trust and HDL Trust. These strategic transactions may involve significant challenges and risks, including: (i) limiting HDFS’s ability to enter into other strategic transactions, such as with another third-party investor; (ii) adding complexities to HDFS’s business operations; (iii) requiring significant attention from HDFS’s management; and (iv) increasing governmental or regulatory issues for HDFS and the Company. There is no assurance that the Company will realize the desired financial or other benefits from these strategic transactions, including those related to HDFS's capital structure.

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• • Geopolitical conditions, including regional conflicts, terrorism, war, and international disputes could cause damage or disruption to…

  Could happen

  • Geopolitical conditions, including regional conflicts, terrorism, war, and international disputes could cause damage or disruption to commerce and the economy, and thus have a material adverse effect on the Company’s financial condition and operating results. The Company operates around the world in various geographic regions and is subject to global events that are beyond its control. The motorcycle industry can also be affected by regional conflicts and other factors over which motorcycle manufacturers have little control. For example, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to an unprecedented expansion of sanctions programs imposed by the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, Japan and other countries against Russia, Belarus, the Crimea Region of Ukraine, the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic. Further, ongoing regional conflicts, including the military conflict between Israel and Hamas, a U.S. designated Foreign Terrorist Organization and the risk of increased tensions between, for example, China and Taiwan and the U.S. and the EU, could result in increased pressure on our supply chain, which could increase the cost of manufacturing. The Company has a number of suppliers in China, and a conflict between China and Taiwan may impact the Company's supply chain. The EU is the Company's second largest sales region, and escalated tensions between the U.S. and the EU could impact demand for the Company's motorcycles in that region. The length, impact and outcome of international conflicts are highly unpredictable, and such conflicts could lead to significant volatility in commodity prices and supply and prices of energy resources, instability in financial markets, supply chain interruptions, political and social instability, changes in consumer or purchaser preferences as well as increases in cyberattacks and espionage, which could impact the Company's financial condition and operating results.

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