Keurig Dr Pepper

KDP on Nasdaq. Keurig Dr Pepper sells drinks and coffee makers to people in North America. Market value $42.0bn.

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Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.

Should I look at this?

Good business, but not cheap right now

See cheaper Everyday goods stocks on the list

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

Compare with another stock

Cash yield
past 12 months to June 2026
4.7%fair

For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $4.69 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.

Price to profit
past 12 months to June 2026
21.9×full

You pay 21.9 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.

Return on capital
five annual reports to December 2025
6.2%five-year median

Each dollar kept in the business earns 6 cents a year. Above 10 is good.

Quality score: 88 of 100. Price score: 59 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$30.89 a share, 24% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $24.88 to $33.82.

Dividend: 3.0% a year

Paid every year for at least 5 years

Prices from Monday’s close (5 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

2.5
2.5
0.9
1.7
1.5
2.0
2021202220232024202512 monthsto Jun '26
Revenue
$12.7bn$14.1bn$14.8bn$15.4bn$16.6bn
Operating margin
22.8%18.5%21.5%16.9%21.5%
Debt to equity
0.500.500.540.670.67
Shares outstanding
1.42bn1.40bn1.36bn1.36bn1.36bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positive5 of 5 years
  • Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Nothing unusual
  • Financial strength (Piotroski)5 of 9
  • Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
  • Debt0.67× equity
  • Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 7.4% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesYes, 4% fewer since 2021

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $7.3 billion last quarter, up 76% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $142 million, down 74% on a year ago.
  • It keeps 16 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, down from 17 cents a year earlier.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $2 billion, up from $1.6 billion.
  • About the same number of shares as a year ago.
  • Debt is $29.5 billion more than cash, up from $16.2 billion a year ago.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$3.9bn
December 2024$4.1bn
March 2025$3.6bn
June 2025$4.2bn
September 2025$4.3bn
December 2025$4.5bn
March 2026$4.0bn
June 2026$7.3bn
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$616m
December 2024-$144m
March 2025$517m
June 2025$547m
September 2025$662m
December 2025$353m
March 2026$270m
June 2026$142m

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
26 October 2026
Last annual report (10-K)
24 February 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
9 November 2026

Who owns it

9 long-term investors we follow own it, unchanged from 9 last quarter. 853 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26
Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

6 investors own more than 5%.

  • FMR LLC
    Passive investor
    at least 12.7%+2.7 pts
    (filed with 1 related holder)
    Since 30 June 2026
  • Capital World Investors
    Passive investor
    8.8%+1.5 pts
    Since 30 June 2026
  • BlackRock, Inc.
    Passive investor
    8.5%+1.6 pts
    Since 30 June 2026
  • 7.3%
    Since 31 March 2026
  • at least 6.3%
    (filed with 1 related holder)
    Since 31 December 2025
  • JAB BevCo B.V.
    at least 4.4%−5.5 pts
    (filed with 11 related holders)
    Since 1 May 2025
    What they said

    Item 4 is hereby amended and supplemented as follows: On May 1, 2025, JAB BevCo entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the "Underwriting Agreement") with J.P. Morgan Securities LLC (the "Underwriter") pursuant to which JAB BevCo agreed to sell 75,000,000 shares of Common Stock…

    Read the filing
  • The Vanguard Group
    Passive investor
    Sold down below 5%
    Since 13 March 2026

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

In the last 12 months, 1 insider bought $250,247 of shares on the open market. 2 sold $1m.

  • DeNooyer Mary Beth
    Chief Human Resources Officer
    Sold
    Date
    9 September 2026
    Shares
    12,000
    Price
    $32.30
    Value
    $387,600
  • DeNooyer Mary Beth
    Chief Human Resources Officer
    Sold
    Date
    8 September 2026
    Shares
    12,000
    Price
    $32.55
    Value
    $390,600
  • Stephens Angela A.
    Senior VP & Controller
    Sold
    Date
    3 September 2026
    Shares
    9,500
    Price
    $32.70
    Value
    $310,650
  • Alt Aaron E
    Director
    Bought
    Date
    25 August 2026
    Shares
    7,862
    Price
    $31.83
    Value
    $250,247
  • Stephens Angela A.
    Senior VP & Controller
    Sold
    Date
    12 December 2025
    Shares
    10,000
    Price
    $29.52
    Value
    $295,200

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 24 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 10 Aug 2026 and 16 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

What changed in the risks this year

Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.

  • In connection with the JDE Peet's Acquisition, we expect to consummate the JV Investment, which could restrict our operational and corporate flexibility, impact our cash resources, and/or depress the market price of our common stock.

    Could happen
    The JV Transaction Agreement provides that, at the closing of the JV Investment, we and the JV Investor Partner will enter into the Pod Manufacturing JV Agreement, which sets forth each partner's rights and responsibilities with respect to the Pod Manufacturing JV. A portion of all distributions by the Pod Manufacturing JV will be paid to the JV Investors, thereby reducing distributions to us. The JV Investor Partner will also have certain governance and consent rights that will restrict our operational and corporate flexibility with respect to the Pod Manufacturing JV. In addition, we may be required to contribute additional resources, including cash, to the Pod Manufacturing JV, which would reduce our cash available for other purposes. In the event of a change of control, the Pod Manufacturing JV would be required to redeem the interests of the JV Investors, which would reduce the cash available for distributions to us. Under certain circumstances, the interests of the JV Investors may be converted into shares of our common stock (or following the Separation, the common stock of the separated global coffee business), which could have a dilutive impact on holders of our existing common stock. Any sales of such common stock, or the perception that such shares may be sold, could depress the market price of our common stock. Furthermore, if we materially breach our obligations to the Pod Manufacturing JV, we may be required to pay monetary damages, or the JV Investors may be entitled to replace us as the operator of the Pod Manufacturing JV.
    Read more
  • We may not complete the proposed JDE Peet's Acquisition within the time frame we anticipate, or at all, which could adversely affect our business.

    Could happen
    The JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement provides that the completion of the proposed JDE Peet's Acquisition will be subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions, including the minimum tender of at least 95% of the shares of JDE Peet's, which will be reduced if the shareholders of JDE Peet's adopt resolutions for the implementation of certain post-closing measures and such resolutions are in full force and effect on the tender offer closing date. Pursuant to the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, the board of directors of JDE Peet's has recommended our offer to purchase JDE Peet's for acceptance by shareholders. Concurrently with the entry into the JDE Peet's Acquisition Agreement, we obtained irrevocable undertakings from Acorn Holdings B.V. and certain directors of JDE Peet's, who collectively hold in the aggregate, as of the date of such undertakings, approximately 69% of the shares of JDE Peet's. Pursuant to the terms of the irrevocable undertakings, Acorn and JDE Peet's directors have committed to tender their shares of JDE Peet's in the offer and to vote in favor of the resolutions proposed at the JDE Peet's Extraordinary General Meeting. Accordingly, additional shareholders of JDE Peet's will need to tender their shares in the offer for the offer to reach the minimum acceptance threshold and we cannot guarantee we will be successful in obtaining 100% of shares of JDE Peet's. If we are unable to obtain the requisite acceptance threshold of shares of JDE Peet's, additional measures may be performed to enable us to acquire the remaining shares, which may delay or impact our ability to complete the JDE Peet's Acquisition.
    Read more
  • The issuance of Convertible Preferred Stock in connection with the JDE Peet's Acquisition may adversely affect the rights and market price of our common stock as well as our capital resources.

    Could happen
    Under the Preferred Investment Agreement, we agreed to issue and sell shares of Convertible Preferred Stock to the Preferred Investors, subject to customary closing conditions. When issued, the Convertible Preferred Stock will rank senior to our common stock, meaning that, in the event of our liquidation, dissolution, or winding up, holders of the Convertible Preferred Stock would be paid in full prior to any proceeds being paid to holders of our common stock.
    Read more
  • • If our due diligence investigation of JDE Peet's was inadequate or if unexpected risks related to JDE Peet's and its business…

    Could happen
    • If our due diligence investigation of JDE Peet's was inadequate or if unexpected risks related to JDE Peet's and its business materialize, it could have a material adverse effect on our business.
  • We will be subject to business uncertainties related to the JDE Peet's Acquisition.

    Already happened
    Uncertainty about the effects of the JDE Peet's Acquisition may have an adverse effect on us, both prior and subsequent to completion of the acquisition. These uncertainties could disrupt our business or the business of JDE Peet's, and cause our collective customers, suppliers, vendors, partners, among others, to defer entering into contracts with the two companies, seek to change or cancel existing business relationships, or make other decisions concerning us and JDE Peet's that may be unfavorable to us. These uncertainties about the various effects of the JDE Peet's Acquisition on our business have caused, and may continue to cause, declines and greater volatility in the price of our common stock. We cannot guarantee that our stock price will fully recover from such declines after the JDE Peet's Acquisition is completed.
    Read more

Read it in the annual report

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.