El Pollo Loco Holdings

LOCO on Nasdaq. El Pollo Loco Holdings sells grilled chicken meals to customers through its restaurants. Market value $438m.

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Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.

Should I look at this?

Worth a closer look

Read what could go wrong

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

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Cash yield
past 12 months to June 2026
9.4%high

For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $9.36 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.

Price to profit
past 12 months to June 2026
8.7×cheap

You pay 8.7 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.

Return on capital
five annual reports to December 2025
9.8%five-year median

Each dollar kept in the business earns 10 cents a year. Above 10 is good.

Quality score: 75 of 100. Price score: 100 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$14.39 a share, 60% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $8.98 to $17.40.

Pays no dividend

Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2021202220232024202512 monthsto Jun '26

Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: $41 million in the past 12 months, $25 million in the year to December 2025.

Revenue
$454m$470m$469m$473m$490m
Operating margin
9.1%6.4%8.5%8.7%8.6%
Debt to equity
0.130.240.340.280.18
Shares outstanding
0.04bn0.03bn0.03bn0.03bn0.03bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positive5 of 5 years
  • Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Not enough data
  • Financial strength (Piotroski)7 of 8 checks we could run
  • Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
  • Debt0.18× equity
  • Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 2.8% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesYes, 18% fewer since 2021

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $130 million last quarter, up 3% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $13 million, up 80% on a year ago.
  • It keeps 11 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, up from 8 cents a year earlier.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $41 million, up from $21 million.
  • 3% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
  • Debt is $18 million more than cash, down from $62 million a year ago.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$120m
December 2024$114m
March 2025$119m
June 2025$126m
September 2025$122m
December 2025$124m
March 2026$126m
June 2026$130m
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$6m
December 2024$6m
March 2025$5m
June 2025$7m
September 2025$7m
December 2025$7m
March 2026$8m
June 2026$13m

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
n/a
Last annual report (10-K)
13 March 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
6 November 2026

Who owns it

7 long-term investors we follow own it, up from 6 last quarter. 151 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26
Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

3 investors own more than 5%; 1 of them is pushing for change.

  • at least 13.5%−1.6 pts
    (filed with 6 related holders)
    Since 30 June 2026
  • BlackRock, Inc.
    Passive investor
    6.4%
    Since 31 March 2025
  • CSFC Management Company, LLC
    Passive investor
    at least 3.8%−1.4 pts
    (filed with 4 related holders)
    Since 8 April 2026
    What they said

    Item 4 of the Schedule 13D is hereby amended and supplemented as follows: The information set forth in Item 5(c) of this Amendment No. 2 is incorporated by reference into this Item 4. The Reporting Persons may, at any time, and subject to compliance with applicable securities…

    Read the filing
  • LSV Asset Management
    Passive investor
    Sold down below 5%
    Since 30 September 2025
  • Fund 1 Investments, LLC
    Passive investor
    Sold down below 5%
    Since 31 December 2024
  • Sold down below 5%
    Since 31 March 2025
  • Roland Spongberg
    Strategic holder
    Sold down below 5%
    Since 6 June 2025
    What they said

    Item 4 of the Schedule 13D is hereby amended and supplemented as follows: As previously disclosed, on May 21, 2025, CapitalSpring entered into a Confidentiality Agreement with the Issuer. Also on May 21, 2025, WKS Corporation entered into a substantially similar confidentiality…

    Read the filing

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

No insider bought or sold on the open market in the last 12 months.

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 13 Mar 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 7 Aug 2026 and 5 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

What changed in the risks this year

Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.

  • We are subject to extensive laws, government regulation, and other legal requirements and our failure to comply with existing or new laws and regulations could adversely affect our operational efficiencies and results of operations.

    Could happen
    More recently, U.S. regulatory authorities, including the Food and Drug Administration, have indicated their intent to restrict or prohibit the use of certain food dyes currently permitted for lawful use in the food supply by the end of 2026. The Food and Drug Administration continues to develop a revised post-market food chemical review program. In addition, the Food and Drug Administration is developing a proposed rule to increase oversight of food ingredients deemed Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS), which, if finalized, would require mandatory submission of GRAS notices for food ingredients. GRAS reform legislation has also been introduced in Congress. Furthermore, an increasing number of states have proposed or enacted laws prohibiting or limiting the use of certain food and color additives and state enforcement actions and investigations into their use are underway. For example, in 2025, the Texas Attorney General’s Office initiated multiple investigations into major food companies regarding the marketing of products containing artificial dyes, resulting in public commitments to remove such additives in the near term and, in one case, a legally binding agreement by other brands are underway. Should such regulatory change affect the ingredients currently used in our products and if we are unable to identify or secure comparable and cost-effective alternative ingredients, such change could have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial position. An unfavorable report on, or reaction to, our current or future menu ingredients, the size of our portions, or the nutritional content of our menu items could negatively influence the demand for our offerings.
    Read more
  • Some of our competitors have substantially greater financial and other resources to devote to innovation in products, technology, and…

    Could happen
    Some of our competitors have substantially greater financial and other resources to devote to innovation in products, technology, and market and consumer data analytics, including integration, use, or offering of new technologies, including artificial intelligence. We may be unable to offer new or innovative products and technologies to our customers that are offered by our competitors, or there may be a delay in our ability to innovate or implement new technologies. Any of these competitive factors may harm our business.
    Read more

Read it in the annual report

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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What a finished deep dive looks like

Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.