Lucid Diagnostics
LUCD on Nasdaq. Lucid Diagnostics sells esophageal cancer tests to people with chronic heartburn. Market value $121m.
Figures from the annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025.
We can't read total debt from the filing, so debt is left out.
Should I look at this?
Look carefully before going further
Why it could be worth it
Nothing stands out yet.
Read the warning sign in its own filings
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $-36.63 of spare cash last year. A savings account pays about $4.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
Quality score: 40 of 100. Price score: 0 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$0.63 a share, 25% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $0.50 to $1.63.
Price from Friday’s close (2 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $500,000 | $377,000 | $2m | $4m | $5m |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | -5483.8% | -14920.7% | -1996.8% | -1059.6% | -1054.8% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.04bn | 0.04bn | 0.11bn | 0.14bn | 0.20bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive0 of 4 years
- Accounting checksSkipped: company is not yet profitable
- DebtUnknown
- Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 75.2% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 420% more shares since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $1 million last quarter, about the same as a year ago.
- A loss of $12 million, compared with a loss of $4 million a year ago.
- It loses 931 cents on each $1 of sales, compared with 1100 cents a year earlier.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $1m |
| December 2024 | $1m |
| March 2025 | $828,000 |
| June 2025 | $1m |
| September 2025 | $1m |
| December 2025 | Not reported |
| March 2026 | $1m |
| June 2026 | $1m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | -$12m |
| December 2024 | -$12m |
| March 2025 | -$27m |
| June 2025 | -$4m |
| September 2025 | -$10m |
| December 2025 | -$16m |
| March 2026 | -$14m |
| June 2026 | -$12m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 25 March 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 11 November 2026
Who owns it
1 long-term investor we follow owns it, unchanged from 1 last quarter. 116 funds in all.
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Manhattan Co.First Manhattan partners | $2m | <0.1% | Added |
Largest holders overall
- Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$9mNew
- BlackRock$9mAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$7mAdded
- Two Seas Capital LP$6mAdded
- Masters Capital Management$4m
- Aberdeen Group$4mAdded
- Geode Capital Management$4mAdded
- State Street$3mAdded
- First Manhattan Co.$2mAdded
- Wells Fargo & Company$2mAdded
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
2 investors own more than 5%.
- PAVmed Inc.Insider or founder27.5%−0.8 ptsSince 3 February 2026
What they said
The Reporting Person is the parent company of the Issuer. As a result of its ability to vote 27.5% of the Common Stock (and an estimated 26.3% of all the capital stock of the Issuer), the Reporting Person has the power to significantly influence the election of directors and all…
Read the filing - Ayrton Capital LLCPassive investorat least 2.0%(filed with 2 related holders)Since 31 December 2024
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
PAVmed Inc. Insider or founder | 27.5%−0.8 pts | 3 February 2026 | What they saidThe Reporting Person is the parent company of the Issuer. As a result of its ability to vote 27.5% of the Common Stock (and an estimated 26.3% of all the capital stock of the Issuer), the Reporting Person has the power to significantly influence the election of directors and all… Read the filing |
Ayrton Capital LLC Passive investor | at least 2.0% (filed with 2 related holders) | 31 December 2024 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
In the last 12 months, 1 insider bought $245,000 of shares on the open market.
- Matheis DennisDirectorBought
- Date
- 20 May 2026
- Shares
- 245,000
- Price
- $1.00
- Value
- $245,000
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | Matheis Dennis Director | Bought | 245,000 | $1.00 | $245,000 |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
1 serious warning sign in Lucid Diagnostics’ filings.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 25 Mar 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 12 Aug 2026 and 7 later 8-Ks.
Doubt it can keep going
SeriousThe company or its auditor warned it may not have enough money to last the next year.
“These factors raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements are issued.”
Show the full paragraph
The Company’s ability to continue operations 12 months beyond the issuance of the financial statements, will depend upon generating substantial revenue that is conditioned upon obtaining positive third -party reimbursement coverage for its EsoGuard Esophageal DNA Test from both government and private health insurance providers, and increasing revenue through cash pay and contracted revenue programs that target, among others, concierge medicine practices and self-insured employers, and on its ability to raise additional capital through various potential sources including equity and/or debt financings or refinancing existing debt obligations. These factors raise substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern within one year after the date the accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements are issued.
From the 10-Q filed 12 August 2026, Part I, Item 1. Financial Statements. Read it in the filing
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.