Moderna
MRNA on Nasdaq. Moderna sells COVID and RSV vaccines to governments, pharmacies and patients. Market value $81.1bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Should I look at this?
Not a fit for our list right now
Why it could be worth it
See Health care stocks that passed both tests
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $-1.66 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
Quality score: 58 of 100. Price score: 0 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$187.46 a share, 741% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $22.28 to $212.22.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
Spare cash swings from quarter to quarter here: a shortfall of $1.2 billion in the past 12 months, a shortfall of $2.1 billion in the year to December 2025.
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $18.5bn | $19.3bn | $6.8bn | $3.2bn | $1.9bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | 72.0% | 48.9% | -61.9% | -121.9% | -158.1% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.01 | 0.07 |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.38bn | 0.38bn | 0.38bn | 0.39bn | 0.40bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive2 of 5 years
- Accounting checksSkipped: company is not yet profitable
- Debt0.07× equity
- Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 19.3% a year
- Buying back its own sharesRoughly flat
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $145 million last quarter, up 2% on a year ago.
- A loss of $782 million, compared with a loss of $825 million a year ago.
- It loses 149 cents on each $1 of sales, compared with 106 cents a year earlier.
- Over the past 12 months it spent $1.2 billion more cash than it brought in, compared with $3.5 billion a year earlier.
- 3% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
- Sales grew on a year ago in 2 of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $1.9bn |
| December 2024 | $966m |
| March 2025 | $108m |
| June 2025 | $142m |
| September 2025 | $1.0bn |
| December 2025 | $678m |
| March 2026 | $389m |
| June 2026 | $145m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $13m |
| December 2024 | -$1.1bn |
| March 2025 | -$971m |
| June 2025 | -$825m |
| September 2025 | -$200m |
| December 2025 | -$826m |
| March 2026 | -$1.3bn |
| June 2026 | -$782m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- 5 November 2026
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 20 February 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 30 October 2026
Who owns it
1 long-term investor we follow owns it, unchanged from 1 last quarter. 781 funds in all.
| Fund | Value | Share of that fund | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Letko BrosseauLetko Brosseau team | $51m | 0.8% | Cut |
Largest holders overall
- FMR$3.6bnAdded
- BlackRock$2.1bnAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$1.6bn
- Capital World Investors$1.6bnAdded
- Baillie Gifford$1.3bnCut
- State Street$1.1bnAdded
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1bn
- Geode Capital Management$679mAdded
- Morgan Stanley$668mAdded
- Theleme Partners LLP$564m
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
3 investors own more than 5%.
- FMR LLCPassive investorat least 13.1%+2.5 pts(filed with 1 related holder)Since 30 June 2026
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor6.5%Since 31 March 2026
- Capital World InvestorsPassive investor5.6%Since 30 June 2026
- BAILLIE GIFFORD & COPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 June 2026
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
FMR LLC Passive investor | at least 13.1%+2.5 pts (filed with 1 related holder) | 30 June 2026 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 6.5% | 31 March 2026 | |
Capital World Investors Passive investor | 5.6% | 30 June 2026 | |
BAILLIE GIFFORD & CO Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 June 2026 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 6 sold $65m, $63m of it under preset trading plans.
- Hoge StephenPresidentSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 15 September 2026
- Shares
- 40,281
- Price
- $146.07
- Value
- $6m
- Hoge StephenPresidentSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 14 September 2026
- Shares
- 40,294
- Price
- $144.13
- Value
- $6m
- Mock James MChief Financial OfficerSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 10 September 2026
- Shares
- 34,836
- Price
- $134.49
- Value
- $5m
- Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal OfficerSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 1 September 2026
- Shares
- 3,471
- Price
- $139.95
- Value
- $485,766
- Bancel StephaneChief Executive Officer, DirectorSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 5 August 2026
- Shares
- 499,246
- Price
- $57.52
- Value
- $29m
- Hoge StephenPresidentSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 15 July 2026
- Shares
- 53,336
- Price
- $67.60
- Value
- $4m
- Hoge StephenPresidentSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 15 June 2026
- Shares
- 53,336
- Price
- $51.37
- Value
- $3m
- Klinger Shannon ThymeChief Legal OfficerSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 4 June 2026
- Shares
- 3,471
- Price
- $50.00
- Value
- $173,550
- AFEYAN NOUBARDirectorSold
- Date
- 21 May 2026
- Shares
- 9,263
- Price
- $46.84
- Value
- $433,879
- Hoge StephenPresidentSoldunder a preset trading plan
- Date
- 15 May 2026
- Shares
- 53,336
- Price
- $48.40
- Value
- $3m
| Date | Who | Did | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 September 2026 | Hoge Stephen President | Sold under a preset trading plan | 40,281 | $146.07 | $6m |
| 14 September 2026 | Hoge Stephen President | Sold under a preset trading plan | 40,294 | $144.13 | $6m |
| 10 September 2026 | Mock James M Chief Financial Officer | Sold under a preset trading plan | 34,836 | $134.49 | $5m |
| 1 September 2026 | Klinger Shannon Thyme Chief Legal Officer | Sold under a preset trading plan | 3,471 | $139.95 | $485,766 |
| 5 August 2026 | Bancel Stephane Chief Executive Officer, Director | Sold under a preset trading plan | 499,246 | $57.52 | $29m |
| 15 July 2026 | Hoge Stephen President | Sold under a preset trading plan | 53,336 | $67.60 | $4m |
| 15 June 2026 | Hoge Stephen President | Sold under a preset trading plan | 53,336 | $51.37 | $3m |
| 4 June 2026 | Klinger Shannon Thyme Chief Legal Officer | Sold under a preset trading plan | 3,471 | $50.00 | $173,550 |
| 21 May 2026 | AFEYAN NOUBAR Director | Sold | 9,263 | $46.84 | $433,879 |
| 15 May 2026 | Hoge Stephen President | Sold under a preset trading plan | 53,336 | $48.40 | $3m |
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the warning signs we check for were found.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 20 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 31 Jul 2026 and 7 later 8-Ks.
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.