Novavax
NVAX on Nasdaq. Novavax sells COVID-19 vaccines and vaccine adjuvant to governments and health organizations. Market value $2.1bn.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Some use the latest annual report instead, as marked. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
We can't read total debt from the filing, so debt is left out.
Should I look at this?
Not a fit for our list right now
Why it could be worth it
Nothing stands out yet.
See Health care stocks that passed both tests
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $-13.44 of spare cash last year. A savings account pays about $4.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
Quality score: 34 of 100. Price score: 0 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$11.32 a share, 83% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $6.20 to $13.39.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
| Revenue | |||||
| Revenue | $1.1bn | $2.0bn | $984m | $682m | $1.1bn |
| Operating margin | |||||
| Operating margin | -147.1% | -32.5% | -57.6% | -36.5% | 40.3% |
| Debt to equity | |||||
| Debt to equity | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Shares outstanding | |||||
| Shares outstanding | 0.08bn | 0.12bn | 0.16bn | 0.16bn | 0.16bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive1 of 5 years
- Accounting checksSkipped: company is not yet profitable
- DebtUnknown
- Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 18.8% a year
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 110% more shares since 2021
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $57 million last quarter, down 76% on a year ago.
- A loss of $53 million, after a profit of $107 million a year ago.
- It loses 57 cents on each $1 of sales, after keeping 33 cents a year earlier.
- 7% fewer shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit more of the company.
- Sales grew on a year ago in 1 of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $85m |
| December 2024 | $88m |
| March 2025 | $667m |
| June 2025 | $239m |
| September 2025 | $70m |
| December 2025 | $147m |
| March 2026 | $140m |
| June 2026 | $57m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | -$121m |
| December 2024 | -$81m |
| March 2025 | $519m |
| June 2025 | $107m |
| September 2025 | -$202m |
| December 2025 | $18m |
| March 2026 | -$9m |
| June 2026 | -$53m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 26 February 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 5 November 2026
Who owns it
None of the long-term investors we follow own it. 267 funds in all.
Largest holders overall
- Shah Capital Management$133mCut
- BlackRock$131mAdded
- State Street$111mAdded
- Vanguard Portfolio Management$72mAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$68m
- Sanofi$65m
- D. E. Shaw$53mCut
- Geode Capital Management$40mAdded
- TWO Sigma Investments, LP$39mAdded
- Coatue Management$36m
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
5 investors own more than 5%; 2 of them are pushing for change.
- Himanshu H. ShahActivistat least 9.0%−0.1 pts(filed with 2 related holders)Since 14 May 2026
What they said
Item 4 is hereby amended to add the following: On May 14, 2026, the Reporting Persons sent a presentation (the "Elevating Novavax Presentation") to the board of directors of the Issuer (the "Board") outlining what they believe to be the failures of the current leadership,…
Read the filing - BlackRock, Inc.Passive investor8.4%Since 31 December 2024
- Himanshu H. ShahActivist7.3%Since 13 October 2025
What they said
Item 4 is hereby amended to add the following: On October 13, 2025, the Reporting Persons sent a letter (the "Shah Capital NVAX BOD Letter") to the board of directors of the Issuer (the "Board") urging the Board to undertake a formal strategic review, including an evaluation of…
Read the filing - STATE STREET CORPORATIONPassive investor7.1%+1.2 ptsSince 30 June 2026
- Vanguard Capital ManagementPassive investor5.1%Since 31 March 2026
- BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/Passive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 March 2026
- The Vanguard GroupPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 13 March 2026
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
Himanshu H. Shah Activist | at least 9.0%−0.1 pts (filed with 2 related holders) | 14 May 2026 | What they saidItem 4 is hereby amended to add the following: On May 14, 2026, the Reporting Persons sent a presentation (the "Elevating Novavax Presentation") to the board of directors of the Issuer (the "Board") outlining what they believe to be the failures of the current leadership,… Read the filing |
BlackRock, Inc. Passive investor | 8.4% | 31 December 2024 | |
Himanshu H. Shah Activist | 7.3% | 13 October 2025 | What they saidItem 4 is hereby amended to add the following: On October 13, 2025, the Reporting Persons sent a letter (the "Shah Capital NVAX BOD Letter") to the board of directors of the Issuer (the "Board") urging the Board to undertake a formal strategic review, including an evaluation of… Read the filing |
STATE STREET CORPORATION Passive investor | 7.1%+1.2 pts | 30 June 2026 | |
Vanguard Capital Management Passive investor | 5.1% | 31 March 2026 | |
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 March 2026 | |
The Vanguard Group Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 13 March 2026 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought or sold on the open market in the last 12 months.
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
None of the serious warning signs we check for were found. 1 thing worth knowing.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 26 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026 and 3 later 8-Ks.
One big customer
Worth knowingOne customer brings in a big share of sales: 51% last year. Losing that customer would hurt.
“Government of Canada | 51% | * | * | * | *”
From the 10-K filed 26 February 2026, Item 8. Financial Statements and Notes (table). Read it in the filing
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
- It owes more than it owns on paper (negative equity). Often that's from borrowing to buy back shares.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.