Nextpower

NXT on Nasdaq. Nextpower sells solar tracking systems and related equipment to utility-scale solar power plants. Market value $10.8bn.

Watch this stockFree. We tell you when something changes.

Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to March 2026.

We can't read total debt from the filing, so debt is left out.

Should I look at this?

Worth a closer look

Read what could go wrong

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

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Cash yield
past 12 months to June 2026
4.1%fair

For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $4.08 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.

Price to profit
past 12 months to June 2026
n/a

The filings do not give us enough to work this out.

Return on capital
five annual reports to March 2026
n/a

The filings do not give us enough to work this out.

Quality score: 80 of 100. Price score: 63 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$88.09 a share, 16% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $76.19 to $163.13.

Pays no dividend

Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

0.1
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.5
202320242025202612 monthsto Jun '26
Revenue
$1.9bn$2.5bn$3.0bn$3.6bn
Operating margin
8.9%23.5%21.6%19.6%
Debt to equity
n/a0.150.00n/a
Shares outstanding
0.14bn0.15bn0.15bn0.15bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positive4 of 4 years
  • Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Not enough data
  • Financial strength (Piotroski)4 of 7 checks we could run
  • Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
  • DebtUnknown
  • Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 23.2% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesNo, 12% more shares since 2023

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $935 million last quarter, up 8% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $165 million, up 5% on a year ago.
  • It keeps 19 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, down from 21 cents a year earlier.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $549 million, down from $574 million.
  • 3% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$636m
December 2024$679m
March 2025$924m
June 2025$864m
September 2025$905m
December 2025$909m
March 2026$881m
June 2026$935m
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$115m
December 2024$115m
March 2025$157m
June 2025$157m
September 2025$147m
December 2025$131m
March 2026$151m
June 2026$165m

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
n/a
Last annual report (10-K)
19 May 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
2 November 2026

Who owns it

4 long-term investors we follow own it, up from 3 last quarter. 727 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26
Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

3 investors own more than 5%.

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 9 sold $53m, $50m of it under preset trading plans.

  • BOYNTON CHARLES D
    Chief Financial Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    1 September 2026
    Shares
    4,500
    Price
    $79.98
    Value
    $359,910
  • Blunden Julia
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    24 August 2026
    Shares
    3,692
    Price
    $84.10
    Value
    $310,501
  • Blunden Julia
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    21 August 2026
    Shares
    3,723
    Price
    $88.08
    Value
    $327,922
  • Thomas Brandi Elizabeth
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    19 August 2026
    Shares
    7,415
    Price
    $91.25
    Value
    $676,619
  • Wenger Howard
    President, Director
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    11 August 2026
    Shares
    11,176
    Price
    $104.78
    Value
    $1m
  • SHUGAR DANIEL S
    Chief Executive Officer, Director
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    10 August 2026
    Shares
    67,636
    Price
    $103.07
    Value
    $7m
  • Blunden Julia
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    5 August 2026
    Shares
    2,289
    Price
    $97.22
    Value
    $222,537
  • BOYNTON CHARLES D
    Chief Financial Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    1 June 2026
    Shares
    4,500
    Price
    $151.79
    Value
    $683,055
  • Miller Nicholas Marco
    Chief Operating Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    29 May 2026
    Shares
    22,427
    Price
    $156.00
    Value
    $3m
  • Wenger Howard
    President, Director
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    26 May 2026
    Shares
    62,670
    Price
    $130.25
    Value
    $8m

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 19 May 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 3 Aug 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

What changed in the risks this year

Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.

  • Future acquisitions, strategic investments, strategic transactions, partnerships, joint ventures or alliances could be difficult to identify and integrate, divert the attention of key management personnel, disrupt our business, dilute stockholder value and adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

    Could happen
    As part of our business strategy, we have, and in the future expect to continue to make, investments in and/or acquire complementary companies, services or technologies, such as our acquisitions of Ojjo, the foundations business of SPI, Bentek, OnSight, Origami and other recent acquisitions. We have also entered into, and may in the future enter into, joint ventures or similar strategic arrangements, such as our Nextpower Arabia joint venture. Our ability as an organization to acquire and integrate other companies, services or technologies, and to structure, negotiate and manage joint ventures and other strategic arrangements, in a successful manner in the future is not guaranteed. We may not be able to find suitable acquisition candidates or joint venture partners, and we may not be able to complete such acquisitions or joint ventures on favorable terms, if at all. When we complete acquisitions or enter into joint ventures, we may not ultimately strengthen our competitive position or ability to achieve our business objectives, and any acquisitions or joint ventures we complete could be viewed negatively by our end-customers or investors. In addition, our due diligence may fail to identify all of the problems, liabilities or other shortcomings or challenges of an acquired business, joint venture partner, product or technology, including issues related to intellectual property, product quality or product architecture, regulatory compliance practices, revenue recognition or other accounting practices or issues with employees or customers. Joint ventures involve unique risks, including our potential inability to control the operations, strategies or financial decisions of our joint venture partners, the potential for our partners to have economic or business interests inconsistent with our own, the possibility that we may be responsible to joint venture partners for indemnifiable losses and the risk that our partners may be unable or unwilling to fulfill their obligations under the relevant joint venture agreements. If we are unsuccessful at integrating such acquisitions, or the technologies associated with such acquisitions, into our company, or at managing our joint ventures effectively, the revenue and results of operations of the combined company could be adversely affected. Any integration process may require significant time and resources, and we may not be able to manage the process successfully. We may not successfully evaluate or utilize the acquired technology or personnel, or the capabilities of joint venture partner, or accurately forecast the financial impact of an acquisition or joint venture transaction, causing unanticipated write-offs or accounting charges. We may have to pay cash, incur debt or issue equity securities to pay for any such acquisition, or to fund our obligations under any joint venture arrangements each of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and the market price of our Class A common stock. The sale of equity or issuance of debt to finance any such acquisitions or joint ventures could result in dilution to our stockholders. The incurrence of indebtedness would result in increased fixed obligations and could also include covenants or other restrictions that would impede our ability to manage our operations.
    Read more
  • The reduction, elimination or expiration of government incentives for, or regulations mandating or restricting the use of, renewable energy and solar energy specifically could reduce demand for solar energy systems and harm our business.

    In RENEW Northeast et al. v. U.S. Department of Interior et al., renewable energy industry groups filed an action in December 2025 alleging that several federal agency actions targeted wind and solar development, slowing or blocking renewable energy permitting in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. In April 2026, the District Court of Massachusetts found irreparable harm as plaintiffs showed imminent economic injuries, including permitting delays, increased compliance costs, disruption to existing investments, and project-related harms. The court held that the balance of equities and public interest favored relief, due to the asserted harms to renewable energy development, the grid, and the environment outweighed the agencies’ interest in continuing policies the court found likely unlawful. The injunction may reduce some immediate permitting barriers for covered entities, but it does not eliminate regulatory uncertainty as the case remains pending, the ruling is subject to appeal, and the agencies may pursue alternative actions.
    Read more
  • Changes in the global trade environment, including the imposition of tariffs, other import duties and trade restrictions, could adversely affect our business growth and the amount or timing of our revenues, results of operations or cash flows.

    Could happen
    If the U.S. courts strike down one of the exemptions Nextpower relied upon or Nextpower’s certifications are found to be invalid, Nextpower could be required to pay AD/CVD amounts with respect to the applicable entries of the modules. To mitigate the AD/CVD duty risk, Nextpower has submitted a prior disclosure to CBP informing CBP of the potential procedural deficiencies with respect to the certifications submitted by Nextpower. To further mitigate the risk of possible invalidation of one of the exemptions relied upon by Nextpower and/or the potential procedural certification deficiencies, Nextpower filed a request for a changed circumstances review with Commerce, seeking an exclusion for its off-grid smart CSPV modules from the AD/CVD orders on CSPV cells and modules from China. In December 2025, Commerce issued the final results of the changed circumstances review and granted an exclusion for Nextpower’s off-grid smart CSPV modules for purposes of the CVD order on CSPV cells and modules from China, retroactive to January 1, 2022, and also for purposes of the AD order on CSPV cells and modules from China, retroactive to December 1, 2022. Following Commerce’s final grant of the retroactive exclusion, the potential AD/CVD duty liability, if any, with respect to such at risk entries has been substantially reduced but remains unknown. The outcome of the litigation challenging the duty exemption and CBP’s treatment of Nextpower’s certifications remains unclear.
    Read more
  • The reduction, elimination or expiration of government incentives for, or regulations mandating or restricting the use of, renewable energy and solar energy specifically could reduce demand for solar energy systems and harm our business.

    Could happen
    Additionally, on July 7, 2025 President Trump issued an Executive Order directing the Secretary of the Treasury to take measures to strictly enforce the termination of the Sections 48E and 45Y credits for wind and solar facilities. The Executive Order specifically directs the Secretary of the Treasury to issue new restrictions concerning “beginning of construction” requirements that appear in many provisions of the OBBBA and which govern eligibility for these tax credits. The Executive Order targets “safe harbor” practices in which our customers seek to establish that their projects have begun construction by the relevant deadline (and therefore qualify for the tax credit) by incurring 5% or more of applicable project costs. Treasury guidance required by this Executive Order was issued on August 22, 2025 in the form of IRS Notice 2025-42. Under this guidance the 5% safe harbor was eliminated effective September 2, 2025 and additional requirements were imposed on solar projects for purposes of demonstrating both the start of physical construction and continuous physical construction thereafter. Such requirements may diminish our customers’ ability to qualify their projects for Section 48E or 45Y tax credits, which in turn could reduce demand for our products and materially harm our business and results of operations.
    Read more
  • The demand for solar energy and, in turn, our products is impacted by many factors outside of our control, and if such demand does not continue to grow or grows at a slower rate than we anticipate, our business and prospects will suffer.

    Could happen
    • regional, national or global macroeconomic trends, including further increased interest rates, inflation or a reduction in the availability of tax equity or project debt financing, which could make it difficult for project developers and owners to finance the cost of a solar energy system and new projects; and • shifts in electricity demand, including those with the rapid expansion of data centers and other energy-intensive facilities, which may affect the timing, scale or economics of solar development or the competitiveness of solar energy relative to other generation technologies.
    Read more

Read it in the annual report

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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What a finished deep dive looks like

Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.