Oshkosh

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 17 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 28 Jul 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• Our use of artificial intelligence and autonomy technologies may expose us to additional risks and may not deliver the benefits we anticipate.

  Could happen

  We are developing, integrating and using artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomy in certain products, services and internal operations. These technologies are evolving and, in many cases, rely on third-party tools, data, software or infrastructure. Our ability to realize benefits from their use depends on factors such as data quality, system integration, workforce adoption, computing resources and the ongoing performance and availability of third-party technology providers. AI-enabled systems may not perform as intended under all operating conditions and may generate inaccurate, incomplete or biased outputs. As these technologies are introduced into products, services or operations, failures or perceived failures, whether due to design limitations, data constraints, integration challenges, cybersecurity incidents, operator misuse, inadequate training or other causes, could result in product performance issues, safety incidents, increased costs, reputational harm or reduced customer acceptance. In addition, the legal and regulatory framework governing AI and data use is rapidly evolving and remains uncertain. New or changing laws, regulations or standards could increase compliance costs, limit permissible uses, require changes to product design or governance practices or expose us to litigation or enforcement actions. If we are unable to effectively develop, integrate, govern or manage AI-enabled technologies, or if these technologies fail to deliver benefits we expect, our results of operations, financial condition or competitive position could be adversely affected.

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• Our dependency on contracts with U.S. and foreign government agencies subjects us to a variety of risks that could materially reduce our revenues or profits or impact our capital allocation strategy.

  Could happen

  In January 2026, the U.S. President issued an executive order directing the DoD and other defense-related agencies to prioritize the warfighter in procurement decisions, including increased emphasis on speed of delivery, affordability, domestic sourcing and operational readiness. While intended to enhance military effectiveness, this directive could result in changes to acquisition strategies, contract structures, technical requirements, pricing expectations or supplier selection criteria. Such changes could increase competition, reduce margins, accelerate delivery schedules or require additional capital investments, which could in turn have a material adverse effect on our net sales, financial condition, results of operations and/or cash flows. Under the executive order, the DoD could also impose conditions or otherwise create disincentives that could limit our ability to repurchase shares of our Common Stock or to pay dividends to our shareholders.

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• Changes in trade policies and other factors beyond our control may adversely impact our results.

  Already happened

  The United States has announced changes to U.S. trade policies, including increasing tariffs on imports and potentially renegotiating or terminating existing trade agreements. The exact scope and duration of any such tariffs that have been or will ultimately be implemented, or retaliatory tariffs that have been or could be implemented by other countries on U.S. exports, is not known, and the impacts on our business are uncertain. Tariffs implemented by the U.S. during 2025 cost us approximately $35 million in 2025, and we estimate that will increase to approximately $200 million in 2026. Geopolitical tensions and trade wars can disrupt supply chains and increase the cost of our products, which could cause our products to be more expensive for customers. Countries have adopted restrictive trade measures such as tariffs, taxation, foreign exchange controls, capital controls and controls on imports or exports of goods, technology or data, any of which could adversely affect our operations and supply chain or limit our ability to offer our products and services as intended.

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• Our performance under our United States Postal Service (USPS) contract may not be what we expect.

  Could happen

  The USPS ordering fewer units than we expect which could result in an impairment of our deferred contract asset. We estimate that deferred contract costs exceed future profits on existing orders by approximately $135 million at December 31, 2025.