PAR Pacific Holdings

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 25 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 5 Aug 2026 and 7 later 8-Ks.

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• Our renewable fuels manufacturing facility co-located with our Hawaii refinery (the “Renewable Fuels Facility”) may not commence operations when we expect, or at all, and, if completed, we may not be able to successfully integrate the Renewable Fuels Facility into our business or realize the anticipated benefits of this investment.

  Could happen

  On October 21, 2025, we established a joint venture with Alohi Renewable Energy LLC (“Alohi”), for the development, construction, ownership, and operation of the Renewable Fuels Facility. There can be no assurance that we will complete the Renewable Fuels Facility on the timeframe that we anticipate, or at all. Failure to complete the Renewable Fuels Facility or any delays in completing it could have an adverse impact on our future business and operations. In addition, we will have incurred significant capital and investment-related expenses without realizing all of the expected benefits.

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• Our renewable fuels manufacturing facility co-located with our Hawaii refinery (the “Renewable Fuels Facility”) may not commence operations when we expect, or at all, and, if completed, we may not be able to successfully integrate the Renewable Fuels Facility into our business or realize the anticipated benefits of this investment.

  Could happen

  • risk that our joint venture partner does not always share our goals and objectives; and • certain obligations that we have to fund capital expenditures relating to the Renewable Fuels Facility.

• Our renewable fuels manufacturing facility co-located with our Hawaii refinery (the “Renewable Fuels Facility”) may not commence operations when we expect, or at all, and, if completed, we may not be able to successfully integrate the Renewable Fuels Facility into our business or realize the anticipated benefits of this investment.

  Could happen

  Additionally, if the Renewable Fuels Facility is completed, we will have certain obligations and liabilities to the joint venture, as a subsidiary of the Company will serve as the construction manager, operator and provider of services. Further, the joint venture will be operated as a separate entity, and we will not fully control its operations. There can be no assurance that we will realize the anticipated benefits and operating synergies of the Renewable Fuels Facility or the joint venture. Our estimates regarding the earnings, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, and liabilities resulting from this investment may prove to be incorrect. This project involves risks, including:

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• Changes in U.S. trade policy and the impact of tariffs may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

  Could happen

  Our business may be adversely affected by uncertainty and changes in U.S. trade policies. For example, effective August 1, 2025, the U.S. adopted new and increased tariffs on countries and specific goods, subject to evolving exemptions. In October 2025, the U.S. government announced a series of new and expanded tariffs on imports from China and other countries, including a 100% tariff on certain categories of goods and increased duties. On November 1, 2025, the U.S. government announced a deal with China that retained heightened reciprocal tariffs and suspended (retaining a 10% baseline) and reduced certain China-specific tariffs, effective November 10, 2025. Separately, previously announced tariffs on imports from other countries went into effect on November 1, 2025. Our business requires access to crude oil and other feedstocks to refine conventional and renewable fuels. Any imposition of, or increase in, tariffs on imports of feedstocks or other materials could increase our production costs and the cost to maintain our assets. To the extent we are unable to pass these cost increases on to our customers, such cost increases could adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Tariffs or other trade restrictions may also lead to continuing uncertainty and volatility in U.S. and global financial and economic conditions and commodity markets, increased inflation, diminished economic expectations, and reduced demand for our products. While the impact of these factors is difficult to predict, any one or more of these factors could have a material adverse impact on our business, results of operations, and financial condition.

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