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Progressive

PGR on NYSE. Progressive sells car and home insurance to drivers, homeowners, and small businesses. Market value $123.6bn.

Watch this stockFree. We tell you when something changes.

Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Some use the latest annual report instead, as marked. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.

Should I look at this?

Good business, but not cheap right now

Why it could be worth it

What to watch out for

See cheaper Financial services stocks on the list

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

Compare with another stock

Return on equity
five annual reports to December 2025
21.6%five-year median

Yearly profit per dollar of owners' money: 22 cents. Above 10 is good.

Price to book
quarterly report to June 2026
3.6×

What you pay for each dollar of net assets: $3.60.

Earnings yield
past 12 months to June 2026
9.5%

Profit per $100 you pay: $9.46.

Quality score: 100 of 100. Price score: 50 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$212.62 a share, 12% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $189.20 to $245.64.

Expected to report results Wednesday 14 Oct, before the market opens.

Dividend: 2.3% a year

Paid every year for at least 5 years

Payouts have jumped around in recent years, so this may not repeat.

Prices from Monday’s close (5 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
20212022202320242025
Revenue
$47.7bn$49.6bn$62.1bn$75.4bn$87.7bn
Operating margin
n/an/an/an/an/a
Debt to equity
n/an/an/an/an/a
Shares outstanding
0.59bn0.59bn0.59bn0.59bn0.58bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positiveDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
  • Accounting checksDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
  • DebtDoesn't apply to banks and insurers
  • Revenue growth, five yearsStrong, 15.5% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesRoughly flat

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $23.6 billion last quarter, up 7% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $3.3 billion, up 4% on a year ago.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $16 billion, down from $16.5 billion.
  • 1% fewer shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit more of the company.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$19.7bn
December 2024$20.3bn
March 2025$20.4bn
June 2025$22.0bn
September 2025$22.5bn
December 2025$22.7bn
March 2026$22.2bn
June 2026$23.6bn
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$2.3bn
December 2024$2.4bn
March 2025$2.6bn
June 2025$3.2bn
September 2025$2.6bn
December 2025$3.0bn
March 2026$2.8bn
June 2026$3.3bn

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
14 October 2026
Last annual report (10-K)
2 March 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
2 November 2026

Who owns it

21 long-term investors we follow own it, unchanged from 21 last quarter. 1,818 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26

Sold out this quarter

Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

2 investors own more than 5%.

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 12 sold $31m, $29m of it under preset trading plans.

  • Broz Steven
    Chief Information Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    24 September 2026
    Shares
    1,225
    Price
    $204.29
    Value
    $250,255
  • Griffith Susan Patricia
    President and CEO, Director
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    1 September 2026
    Shares
    37,338
    Price
    $219.50
    Value
    $8m
  • Broz Steven
    Chief Information Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    20 August 2026
    Shares
    1,225
    Price
    $219.40
    Value
    $268,765
  • Niederst Lori A
    Chief Personal Lines Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    13 August 2026
    Shares
    7,339
    Price
    $209.29
    Value
    $2m
  • Quigg Andrew J
    VP and Chief Financial Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    28 July 2026
    Shares
    3,499
    Price
    $220.00
    Value
    $769,780
  • Murphy John Jo
    Claims President
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    27 July 2026
    Shares
    8,124
    Price
    $212.70
    Value
    $2m
  • Griffith Susan Patricia
    President and CEO, Director
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    27 July 2026
    Shares
    37,338
    Price
    $212.71
    Value
    $8m
  • Bauer Jonathan S.
    Chief Investment Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    27 July 2026
    Shares
    2,242
    Price
    $212.71
    Value
    $476,896
  • Bailo Karen
    Commercial Lines President
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    27 July 2026
    Shares
    8,452
    Price
    $212.71
    Value
    $2m
  • Broz Steven
    Chief Information Officer
    Sold
    under a preset trading plan
    Date
    23 July 2026
    Shares
    1,156
    Price
    $205.17
    Value
    $237,177

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 2 Mar 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 3 Aug 2026 and 10 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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What a finished deep dive looks like

Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.