Timken

TKR on NYSE. Timken sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products to industrial customers. Market value $8.3bn.

Watch this stockFree. We tell you when something changes.

Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.

Should I look at this?

Worth a closer look

Read what could go wrong

This is not advice. Check the numbers below.

Compare with another stock

Cash yield
past 12 months to June 2026
4.6%fair

For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $4.64 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.

Price to profit
past 12 months to June 2026
19.9×full

You pay 19.9 years of operating profit for the business. The average large US company costs around 18.

Return on capital
five annual reports to December 2025
11.4%five-year median

Each dollar kept in the business earns 11 cents a year. Above 10 is good.

Quality score: 92 of 100. Price score: 61 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.

$119.99 a share, 70% above its 1-year low

Over the past year the price has ranged from $70.57 to $146.37.

Dividend: 1.2% a year

Paid every year for at least 5 years

Prices from Monday’s close (5 October).

Five years of cash, in billions

0.2
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.4
2021202220232024202512 monthsto Jun '26
Revenue
$4.1bn$4.5bn$4.8bn$4.6bn$4.6bn
Operating margin
12.4%13.5%13.8%13.4%11.8%
Debt to equity
0.640.870.930.730.61
Shares outstanding
0.07bn0.07bn0.07bn0.07bn0.07bn

Health checks

  • Free cash flow positive5 of 5 years
  • Accounting looks honest (Beneish)Nothing unusual
  • Financial strength (Piotroski)5 of 8 checks we could run
  • Profit backed by cash (accruals)Yes
  • Debt0.61× equity
  • Revenue growth, five yearsSlow, 5.5% a year
  • Buying back its own sharesYes, 5% fewer since 2021

The quarter to June 2026

How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.

  • Sales: $1.3 billion last quarter, up 7% on a year ago.
  • Profit: $29 million, down 63% on a year ago.
  • It keeps 11 cents of each $1 of sales as operating profit, down from 12 cents a year earlier.
  • Spare cash over the past 12 months: $386 million, up from $315 million.
  • About the same number of shares as a year ago.
  • Debt is $1.7 billion more than cash, down from $1.8 billion a year ago.
  • Sales grew on a year ago in each of the last 4 quarters.
Sales by quarter
Sales by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$1.1bn
December 2024$1.1bn
March 2025$1.1bn
June 2025$1.2bn
September 2025$1.2bn
December 2025$1.1bn
March 2026$1.2bn
June 2026$1.3bn
Profit by quarter
Profit by quarter
Quarter toAmount
September 2024$82m
December 2024$71m
March 2025$78m
June 2025$79m
September 2025$69m
December 2025$62m
March 2026$98m
June 2026$29m

From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.

Dates

Next results (estimated)
n/a
Last annual report (10-K)
13 February 2026
Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
3 November 2026

Who owns it

12 long-term investors we follow own it, down from 13 last quarter. 604 funds in all.

Jun '25
Dec '25
Jun '26

Sold out this quarter

Largest holders overall

From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.

Big holders and activists

2 investors own more than 5%.

  • American Century Investment Management, Inc.
    Passive investor
    at least 4.3%−0.7 pts
    (filed with 2 related holders)
    Since 31 December 2025
  • FMR LLC
    Passive investor
    at least 4.0%−1.1 pts
    (filed with 1 related holder)
    Since 31 December 2025
  • The Vanguard Group
    Passive investor
    Sold down below 5%
    Since 13 March 2026

From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.

What insiders did

No insider bought shares on the open market in the last 12 months. 5 sold $18m.

  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    10 August 2026
    Shares
    13,637
    Price
    $126.63
    Value
    $2m
  • Rajendra Ajita G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    5 June 2026
    Shares
    8,450
    Price
    $131.34
    Value
    $1m
  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    27 May 2026
    Shares
    8,448
    Price
    $127.35
    Value
    $1m
  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    8 May 2026
    Shares
    37,181
    Price
    $117.34
    Value
    $4m
  • TIMKEN JOHN M JR
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    8 May 2026
    Shares
    15,000
    Price
    $116.51
    Value
    $2m
  • Discenza Michael Anthony
    EVP, Chief Financial Officer
    Sold
    Date
    24 February 2026
    Shares
    1,532
    Price
    $109.59
    Value
    $167,892
  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    20 February 2026
    Shares
    19,636
    Price
    $107.99
    Value
    $2m
  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    19 February 2026
    Shares
    10,000
    Price
    $106.72
    Value
    $1m
  • Patel Hansal N.
    EVP, GC and Secretary
    Sold
    Date
    9 February 2026
    Shares
    2,500
    Price
    $108.01
    Value
    $270,025
  • Kyle Richard G
    Director
    Sold
    Date
    6 February 2026
    Shares
    30,206
    Price
    $106.52
    Value
    $3m

From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.

Warning signs in its filings

Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 13 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 4 Aug 2026 and 7 later 8-Ks.

A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.

What could go wrong

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

What changed in the risks this year

Companies must list what could hurt them each year. These are the parts that changed since last year’s report.

  • Uncertainties with respect to the use of AI in our business may negatively impact our results from operations, reputation, and competitiveness.

    Could happen
    We have begun to incorporate AI technologies into certain aspects of our operations. While these technologies may offer potential efficiencies, AI systems are relatively new and may not perform as expected. Errors or failures could disrupt production, impair product quality, or increase costs. Additionally, integration of AI may require changes to existing processes and workforce roles. These changes could lead to inefficiencies, increased training costs, or labor-related challenges. Moreover, the continued development and deployment of these AI technologies will require additional capital and increased costs going forward. In addition to AI regulation under general consumer protection and privacy laws, legislation specifically aimed at regulating the development, deployment and use of AI has been enacted in several states and has also been proposed at the federal level. Further, recent Executive Orders have further addressed federal regulation and policies related to AI. These laws, proposed laws, and Executive Orders may create inconsistent and evolving compliance obligations, which may be costly, challenging, and difficult to resolve. AI-related issues, including continued government regulation of AI, deficiencies and/or failures could give rise to legal and/or regulatory action, damage our reputation or otherwise adversely affect our business, including by impacting costs to our business. Furthermore, if our data, or data belonging to our customers, suppliers, or other third parties, is unintentionally provided to, accessed by, or used to train external AI models, the unauthorized disclosure or misuse of such information could result. Such an event could harm our reputation, expose us to contractual or legal claims, or require us to change how we use such AI models. Conversely, any failure to successfully develop and deploy AI in our business could adversely affect our competitiveness, particularly if our competitors successfully deploy AI in their businesses.
    Read more
  • Global political instability and other risks of international operations may adversely affect our operating costs, revenues and the price of our products.

    Could happen
    • disadvantages of competing against companies from countries that are not subject to U.S. laws and regulations, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act ("FCPA");
  • Severe weather associated with a changing climate could negatively impact our operations and those of our customers and suppliers.

    Could happen
    Severe weather associated with a changing climate, such as flooding, hurricanes, extreme heat, severe storms, wildfires and other natural disasters, could negatively impact the operation of our facilities, as well as those of our customers and suppliers, could limit our ability to insure our assets on commercially desirable terms and conditions, and could cause shipping disruptions, leading to delays in manufacturing and delivery of products.
    Read more

Read it in the annual report

The deep dive

Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.

  • What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
  • Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
  • The three things that would make this a mistake
  • Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
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What a finished deep dive looks like

Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.