Shiller PE Ratio Today: Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
Today's Shiller PE (also called the CAPE ratio), what it says about US stock prices, and what happened next every other time it was this high.
The Shiller PE is 41.2 today.
By this measure, US stocks look very expensive.
That is higher than 99% of months since 1881. It was only higher in 1999–2000. The dot-com bubble peaked at 44.2 in December 1999.
The usual level is about 16.6, so today is about 2.5 times that.
With the S&P 500 at 7,807 on October 12, 2026.
The market is pricey. Some companies aren't. See tonight's list →The Shiller PE since 1881
What happened next
Every month since 1881, grouped by its Shiller PE. Then how much US stocks returned a year over the next 10 years, after inflation, with dividends.
| Shiller PE | Average | Worst | Best | Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10 | +11.3% | +1.8% | +20.0% | 229 |
| 10 to 15 | +7.6% | −4.2% | +17.6% | 461 |
| 15 to 20 | +6.0% | −4.6% | +16.1% | 514 |
| 20 to 25 | +4.6% | −4.0% | +14.2% | 260 |
| 25 to 30 | +5.9% | −1.2% | +11.8% | 109 |
| 30 to 35 | +1.3% | −1.8% | +4.5% | 23 |
| 35 or moretoday | −2.6% | −5.9% | +1.1% | 34 |
When the Shiller PE was 35 or more, stocks lost 2.6% a year on average over the next 10 years, after inflation. That is only 34 months, mostly from one stretch of history. Treat it as a warning, not a forecast.
Data: Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com. The last 10 years have no “next 10 years” yet, so they aren't in the table. Monthly data last checked October 13, 2026.
The short answer
The Shiller PE compares the price of US stocks with their profits over the last 10 years. A high number means you pay a lot for each dollar of profit.
Today's number is in the box above. It updates every day. In May 2026 it passed 40. It had been that high only once before, in the dot-com bubble of 1999 and 2000.
High doesn't mean a crash is coming next week. Prices can stay high for years. But history says that buying at a high Shiller PE has usually meant weak returns over the next 10 years.
What the Shiller PE is
A normal P/E ratio is a company's price divided by one year of profit. If a stock costs $100 and the company earned $5 a share, the P/E is 20. You pay $20 for each $1 of yearly profit.
One year of profit can mislead. In a boom, profits are high, so the P/E looks cheap. In a recession, profits collapse, so the P/E looks dear.
The Shiller PE fixes that. It takes the S&P 500, the 500 biggest US companies. Then it divides the price by their average profit over the last 10 years, adjusted for inflation. Ten years usually covers a full boom and a full bust.
Its full name is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, or CAPE. Economist Robert Shiller made it famous, and he won a Nobel Prize in 2013. The idea is older. Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett's teacher, suggested averaging profits over 5 to 10 years back in 1934.
How to read the number
The usual level since 1881 is about 17. That is the middle value: half of all months were higher, half lower.
We sort every month since 1881 from cheapest to most expensive, and show where today sits:
- Cheap: lower than 75% of months.
- About normal: in the middle half.
- Expensive: higher than 75% of months.
- Very expensive: higher than 95% of months.
A few famous moments, for scale:
| Moment | Shiller PE |
|---|---|
| September 1929, just before the crash | 32.6 |
| December 1999, the dot-com peak | 44.2 |
| March 2009, the bottom after the financial crisis | 13.3 |
What history says
The table above groups every month since 1881 by its Shiller PE. Then it shows how US stocks did over the next 10 years, after inflation and with dividends.
The pattern is clear. Months that started cheap, under 10, went on to earn about 11% a year. Months that started above 35 went on to lose about 2.6% a year.
Be careful with that last number. It comes from only 34 months, almost all from 1998 to 2000. That is one bubble, not many. It is a warning, not a forecast.
Also notice the spread. Even from cheap starting points, the worst 10 years were close to flat. Even from expensive ones, some 10-year stretches made money.
Why it might be high now
There are fair reasons the number may sit higher today than in the past:
- Different companies. Today's S&P 500 has more software and tech firms. They keep more of each sale as profit, so investors pay more for them.
- Accounting rules changed. Since the early 2000s, rules make companies write off some losses faster. That lowers past profits and pushes the Shiller PE up.
- Interest rates. When savings accounts and bonds pay little, people pay more for stocks.
- Buybacks. Companies now return more cash by buying back shares instead of paying dividends.
None of this makes stocks cheap. It means today's "normal" may be above 17. Even so, a reading above 40 is high by almost any standard.
What a value investor does with this
The Shiller PE is about the whole market. It says nothing about one company.
Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham didn't try to guess the market's next move. They looked for single companies selling for less than they're worth. Even in an expensive market, some companies stay fairly priced.
Here is how investors often use the number:
- As a guide to the next 10 years. Historically, high readings were followed by lower returns from the index.
- As a reason to look closer. In a pricey market, many value investors pay extra attention to each company's price.
- Alongside steady investing. Some people invest a fixed amount each month, which buys more shares when prices fall.
This page is for learning. It isn't advice about what you should buy or sell.
Questions
What is a good Shiller PE ratio? There is no single good number. The middle value since 1881 is about 17. Under 15 has usually been cheap. Over 30 has usually been expensive.
What is the Shiller PE ratio today? It is in the box at the top of this page. We take Robert Shiller's latest monthly figure and update it each day with the S&P 500's closing price.
Does a high Shiller PE mean the market will crash? No. It can stay high for years. In the 1990s it passed 30 in 1997, and the market kept rising until 2000. It is a poor timing tool. It is a better guide to returns over the next 10 years.
What is the difference between the Shiller PE and the normal PE? The normal PE uses one year of profit. The Shiller PE uses the average of the last 10 years, after inflation. That smooths out booms and busts.
What is the CAPE ratio? The same thing. CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. Shiller PE and CAPE are two names for one number.
Should I sell my stocks when it is high? We can't tell you what to do with your money. In the past, the market sometimes kept rising for years after the number looked high, as it did from 1997 to 2000.
Where does the data come from? From Robert Shiller's free monthly dataset at shillerdata.com. We check it twice a month and update today's figure daily with the S&P 500's closing price.
Is it really free? Yes. No account and no signup.
The next step
The whole market can be expensive while some companies aren't. Every night we check about 3,000 US companies for a good business at a fair price. See tonight's list. To check one company's price, try Is it undervalued? or the free DCF calculator.