Alarm.com Holdings

None of the warning signs we check for were found.

We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.

We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 19 Feb 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 6 Aug 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.

Cheap for a reason is the question the numbers cannot answer.

Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.

• Our business operates in a regulated industry.

  Already happened

  In addition, because certain of our products require government certification before they can be sold, our business could be harmed by delays in obtaining these certifications. For instance, the U.S. government shutdown that occurred during part of the fourth quarter of 2025 significantly limited the FCC’s ability to approve new products, which caused delays in the launch of certain new products. Any prolonged delay in receiving required certifications for our new or existing products could materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

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• We may not be able to secure additional financing on favorable terms, or at all, to meet our future capital needs.

  Could happen

  In the future, we may require additional capital to respond to business opportunities, challenges, acquisitions or unforeseen circumstances and may determine to engage in equity or debt financings or enter into credit facilities for other reasons. For example, on January 20, 2021, we issued the 2026 Notes and on May 31, 2024, we issued the 2029 Notes. We received proceeds from the issuance of the 2026 Notes of $484.3 million, net of $15.7 million of transaction fees and other debt issuance costs. We received proceeds from the issuance of the 2029 Notes of $485.2 million, net of $14.8 million of transaction fees and other debt issuance costs. On January 14, 2026, we paid $500.0 million in aggregate principal amount to holders of the 2026 Notes, fully settling the outstanding balance. The settlement was funded with cash on hand, consistent with our stated intent, with no shares of common stock issued. We may require additional capital to respond to the significant uncertainty arising from the Macroeconomic Conditions and we may not be able to timely secure additional debt or equity financing on favorable terms or at all. If we are unable to obtain adequate financing or financing on terms satisfactory to us, when we require it, our ability to continue to grow or support our business and to respond to business challenges could be limited. Any debt financing obtained by us in the future could involve restrictive covenants relating to our capital raising activities and other financial and operational matters, which may make it more difficult for us to obtain additional capital and to pursue business opportunities, including potential acquisitions. If we raise additional funds through further issuances of equity, convertible debt securities or other securities convertible into equity, our existing stockholders could suffer significant dilution in their percentage ownership of our company, and any new equity securities we issue could have rights, preferences and privileges senior to those of holders of our common stock. If we are unable to obtain adequate financing or financing on terms satisfactory to us, when we require it, our ability to continue to grow or support our business and to respond to business challenges could be limited. See “Risks Related to our Outstanding Convertible Senior Notes” below for further details on risks related to the 2029 Notes.

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• Enhanced United States tax, tariff, import/export restrictions, or other trade barriers may have an adverse impact on global economic conditions, financial markets and our business.

  Already happened

  In April 2025, the U.S. government announced a baseline tariff of 10% on all products imported into the United States (with certain limited exceptions) and additional individualized tariffs based on country of origin at different rates per country. Certain of these tariffs have been subsequently paused or modified, and the situation remains fluid. The United States and/or countries into which we import products have adjusted and/or imposed and may, in the future, adjust and/or impose new quotas, duties, tariffs or reciprocal tariffs or other restrictions. A significant portion of our hardware is produced outside the United States, including in Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan. The U.S. government has since announced several tariff framework agreements, including with countries where a significant portion of our hardware is produced, which have impacted our hardware revenue margins. The ultimate impact of any tariffs will depend on various factors, including how long such tariffs remain in place, the ultimate levels of such tariffs, the outcome of pending legal challenges to their validity, how other countries respond to the U.S. tariffs, and the specific timing of when and the degree to which we pass through the cost of the tariffs to our customers consistent with our contractual rights.

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• We may not have the ability to raise the funds necessary to settle cash conversions of the 2029 Notes or to repurchase the 2029 Notes upon a fundamental change, and our future debt may contain limitations on our ability to pay cash upon conversion or repurchase of the 2029 Notes.

  Could happen

  On January 20, 2021, we issued the 2026 Notes. We received proceeds from the issuance of the 2026 Notes of $484.3 million, net of $15.7 million of transaction fees and other debt issuance costs. On January 14, 2026, we paid $500.0 million in aggregate principal amount to holders of the 2026 Notes, fully settling the outstanding balance. The settlement was funded with cash on hand, consistent with our stated intent, with no shares of common stock issued. On May 31, 2024, we issued the 2029 Notes. The terms of the 2029 Notes are governed by an Indenture, or the 2029 Indenture, by and between Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee. The 2029 Notes are senior unsecured obligations that bear interest at a rate of 2.25% per annum, payable semiannually in arrears on June 1 and December 1 of each year, beginning on December 1, 2024, and the principal amount of the 2029 Notes will not accrete. We received proceeds from the issuance of the 2029 Notes of $485.2 million, net of $14.8 million of transaction fees and other debt issuance costs.

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• Our strategy includes pursuing acquisitions, and our potential inability to successfully integrate newly-acquired technologies, assets or businesses may harm our financial results. Future acquisitions of technologies, assets or businesses which are paid for partially or entirely through the issuance of stock or stock rights could dilute the ownership of our existing stockholders.

  Could happen

  In addition, we have equity investments in several entities and the accounting treatment applied to these investments varies depending on a number of factors, such as our percentage of ownership and the level of influence or control we have over the entity. Because these entities are managed independently, their business decisions may differ from our interests and impact the value of our investments. These entities may also be subject to litigation, regulatory actions, or other disputes, any of which could negatively impact their financial results and our share of income or the value of our investment. If any of these entities experience significant losses, become subject to material litigation, or cease operations, our investments could be subject to impairment and the loss of a part or all of our investment value.

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