Kodiak AI
KDK on Nasdaq. Kodiak sells driverless truck technology to companies that move freight. Market value $347m.
Price checks use the past 12 months to June 2026. Quality checks use five annual reports, the latest for the year to December 2025.
Should I look at this?
Look carefully before going further
Why it could be worth it
Nothing stands out yet.
Read the warning sign in its own filings
This is not advice. Check the numbers below.
For every $100 of what the whole company costs, it produced $-42.73 of spare cash in the past 12 months. A savings account pays about $4.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
The filings do not give us enough to work this out.
Quality score: 20 of 100. Price score: 0 of 100. Our list needs 70 on quality and 60 on price.
$1.72 a share, 14% above its 1-year low
Over the past year the price has ranged from $1.51 to $11.35.
Pays no dividend
Prices from Tuesday’s close (6 October).
Five years of cash, in billions
| Revenue | |||
| Revenue | $17m | $15m | $4m |
| Operating margin | |||
| Operating margin | -317.8% | -413.3% | -2966.2% |
| Debt to equity | |||
| Debt to equity | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Shares outstanding | |||
| Shares outstanding | 0.06bn | 0.18bn | 0.20bn |
Health checks
- Free cash flow positive0 of 3 years
- Accounting checksSkipped: company is not yet profitable
- DebtUnknown
- Revenue growth, five yearsUnknown
- Buying back its own sharesNo, 246% more shares since 2023
The quarter to June 2026
How the business did, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
- Sales: $3 million last quarter, up 596% on a year ago.
- Profit: $12 million, after a loss of $114 million a year ago.
- It loses 2100 cents on each $1 of sales, compared with 652 cents a year earlier.
- 221% more shares than a year ago. Each share owns a bit less of the company.
- It has $5 million more cash than debt, down from $15 million a year ago.
- Sales grew on a year ago in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | $400,000 |
| December 2024 | $14m |
| March 2025 | $1m |
| June 2025 | $503,000 |
| September 2025 | $770,000 |
| December 2025 | $1m |
| March 2026 | $2m |
| June 2026 | $3m |
| Quarter to | Amount |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | -$19m |
| December 2024 | Not reported |
| March 2025 | -$128m |
| June 2025 | -$114m |
| September 2025 | -$270m |
| December 2025 | -$74m |
| March 2026 | $26m |
| June 2026 | $12m |
From the company's quarterly reports to the SEC.
Dates
- Next results (estimated)
- n/a
- Last annual report (10-K)
- 11 March 2026
- Next quarterly (estimated, 10-Q)
- 6 November 2026
Who owns it
None of the long-term investors we follow own it. 76 funds in all.
Largest holders overall
- Battery Management$58m
- Ares Management$54mNew
- Soros Fund Management$50m
- SIP Global Opportunity Manager$49m
- Lightspeed Management Company, L.L.C.$37m
- ARK Investment Management$26mAdded
- Vanguard Capital Management$25mAdded
- Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.$20mNew
- Amova Asset Management Americas$12mAdded
- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group$12mAdded
From 13F filings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Big holders and activists
13 investors own more than 5%.
- Burnette Donald L.Insider or founder15.1%Since 24 September 2025
What they said
The information set forth in or incorporated by reference into Item 3 of this Schedule 13D is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety into this Item 4. At the Closing, pursuant to the terms of the Business Combination Agreement, the Reporting Person became the…
Read the filing - Ares Acquisition Holdings II LPPassive investorat least 13.7%(filed with 1 related holder)Since 30 September 2025
- Alyeska Investment Group, L.P.Passive investorat least 9.9%+2.2 pts(filed with 2 related holders)Since 30 September 2025
- Paz Eshel Living TrustPassive investorat least 9.4%(filed with 1 related holder)Since 24 September 2025
- Meteora Capital, LLCPassive investor7.8%Since 30 June 2025
- Barclays PLCPassive investor7.1%Since 30 September 2024
- Justin TurkatPassive investorat least 6.9%−0.3 pts(filed with 8 related holders)Since 31 March 2026
- LMR Partners LLCPassive investorat least 6.5%(filed with 5 related holders)Since 30 June 2026
- Battery Partners XII, LLCPassive investorat least 6.3%(filed with 11 related holders)Since 24 September 2025
What they said
The Reporting Persons purchased the aforementioned securities for investment purposes with the aim of increasing the value of their investments and the Issuer. Subject to applicable legal requirements, one or more of the Reporting Persons may purchase additional securities of…
Read the filing - Mizuho Financial Group, Inc.Passive investor6.3%Since 31 March 2025
- SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLCPassive investorat least 4.9%−0.8 pts(filed with 1 related holder)Since 30 June 2026
- First Trust Capital Management L.P.Passive investorat least 4.0%(filed with 3 related holders)Since 31 March 2025
- AQR Capital Management, LLCPassive investorat least 3.0%−2.7 pts(filed with 2 related holders)Since 30 June 2025
- Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.Passive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 March 2026
- ARK Investment Management LLCPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 October 2025
- W. R. Berkley CorporationPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 June 2026
- Fort Baker Capital Management LPPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 September 2025
- Westchester Capital Management, LLCPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 30 September 2025
- Wealthspring Capital LLCPassive investorSold down below 5%Since 31 May 2025
| Holder | Stake | Since | |
|---|---|---|---|
Burnette Donald L. Insider or founder | 15.1% | 24 September 2025 | What they saidThe information set forth in or incorporated by reference into Item 3 of this Schedule 13D is hereby incorporated by reference in its entirety into this Item 4. At the Closing, pursuant to the terms of the Business Combination Agreement, the Reporting Person became the… Read the filing |
Ares Acquisition Holdings II LP Passive investor | at least 13.7% (filed with 1 related holder) | 30 September 2025 | |
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. Passive investor | at least 9.9%+2.2 pts (filed with 2 related holders) | 30 September 2025 | |
Paz Eshel Living Trust Passive investor | at least 9.4% (filed with 1 related holder) | 24 September 2025 | |
Meteora Capital, LLC Passive investor | 7.8% | 30 June 2025 | |
Barclays PLC Passive investor | 7.1% | 30 September 2024 | |
Justin Turkat Passive investor | at least 6.9%−0.3 pts (filed with 8 related holders) | 31 March 2026 | |
LMR Partners LLC Passive investor | at least 6.5% (filed with 5 related holders) | 30 June 2026 | |
Battery Partners XII, LLC Passive investor | at least 6.3% (filed with 11 related holders) | 24 September 2025 | What they saidThe Reporting Persons purchased the aforementioned securities for investment purposes with the aim of increasing the value of their investments and the Issuer. Subject to applicable legal requirements, one or more of the Reporting Persons may purchase additional securities of… Read the filing |
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. Passive investor | 6.3% | 31 March 2025 | |
SOROS FUND MANAGEMENT LLC Passive investor | at least 4.9%−0.8 pts (filed with 1 related holder) | 30 June 2026 | |
First Trust Capital Management L.P. Passive investor | at least 4.0% (filed with 3 related holders) | 31 March 2025 | |
AQR Capital Management, LLC Passive investor | at least 3.0%−2.7 pts (filed with 2 related holders) | 30 June 2025 | |
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc. Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 March 2026 | |
ARK Investment Management LLC Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 October 2025 | |
W. R. Berkley Corporation Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 June 2026 | |
Fort Baker Capital Management LP Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 September 2025 | |
Westchester Capital Management, LLC Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 30 September 2025 | |
Wealthspring Capital LLC Passive investor | Sold down below 5% | 31 May 2025 |
From Schedule 13D and 13G filings: anyone owning more than 5% must file one.
What insiders did
No insider bought or sold on the open market in the last 12 months.
From Form 4 filings: insiders must report trades in their own company's shares within two days.
Warning signs in its filings
Problems the company itself reported to the SEC, in its own words.
1 serious warning sign in Kodiak AI’s filings.
We look for five warning signs: doubt it can keep going, weak checks on its own accounts, a notice that its past accounts can't be relied on, a change of auditor, and one customer bringing in a big share of sales. We don't check lawsuits, investigations or debt yet.
We checked the auditor's report, internal controls, restatement notices, auditor changes and big customers in the 10-K filed 11 Mar 2026, plus the 10-Q filed 7 Aug 2026 and 4 later 8-Ks.
Doubt it can keep going
SeriousThe company or its auditor warned it may not have enough money to last the next year.
“As discussed in Note 1 to the financial statements, the Company has recurring losses from operations, has a working capital deficiency, and has stated that substantial doubt exists about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”
Show the full paragraph
The accompanying consolidated financial statements have been prepared assuming that the Company will continue as a going concern. As discussed in Note 1 to the financial statements, the Company has recurring losses from operations, has a working capital deficiency, and has stated that substantial doubt exists about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern. Management's evaluation of the events and conditions and management’s plans regarding these matters are also described in Note 1. The consolidated financial statements do not include any adjustments that might result from the outcome of this uncertainty.
From the 10-K filed 11 March 2026, Item 8. Financial Statements and Notes - Independent auditor's report. Read it in the filing
Changed auditor
Worth knowingThe company changed its auditor (the firm that checks its books) in the last two years.
Cover page of the 10-K filed 11 Mar 2026: it names a different audit firm from the one named in the annual report before.
From the cover page of the 10-K filed 11 March 2026. Open the filing
A 10-K is the yearly report every US company files with the SEC. An 8-K is a short notice of a big event.
What could go wrong
- It owes more than it owns on paper (negative equity). Often that's from borrowing to buy back shares.
Whether the price already reflects the risks is what the deep dive is for.
The deep dive
Everything above is arithmetic on public filings. The deep dive reads the last ten years of annual reports, the proxy statements, and the earnings calls, then argues the case the way Buffett, Klarman, and Hohn would, and checks every claim against the source.
- What the business is worth, as a range, and the margin of safety at today’s price
- Prices to start buying, buy, and buy hard
- The three things that would make this a mistake
- Every number footnoted to the filing it came from
Your first deep dive is free.
Not advice. Numbers on this page come from SEC filings and are updated each night; prices are updated again after the US market closes. The five-year figures are rounded.